Here are all the ways the Iran war has affected the U.S. economy so far

The Iran war is starting to show up in the U.S. economy in ways both obvious and not so much, with soaring energy costs leading the impact and potential hits on broader growth simmering beneath the surface.

Though recession fears have grown since the fighting began more than six weeks ago, most economists think the war will have only modest effects on gross domestic product — maybe shaving off a few tenths of a percentage point overall.

But there's an important caveat, mainly around duration: Should the current ceasefire hold, inflationary impacts will wear off. If fighting resumes, however, the future becomes much murkier, threatening the fragile growth the economy has seen over the past two quarters.

“It's going to gouge out some of the growth, but we'll weather through it,” said Mike Skordeles, head of U.S. economics at Truist Advisory Services. “The bigger issue is the uncertainty.”

Indeed, uncertainty has hung over the U.S. economy for most the past year, ever since President Donald Trump unveiled his “liberation day” tariffs in early April 2025 and continuing through what has become an increasingly muscular and aggressive foreign policy.