Harmovest Capital | Daily Report: Is Gold Set to Rally Further as Geopolitical Tensions Ease?

08 April 2026 | Market Briefs

Key Highlights

• Trump withdraws threat against Iran and agrees to a two-week ceasefire

• Market risk-off sentiment eases significantly

• The U.S. dollar faces downside pressure

• Gold maintains a strong bullish trend

Market Summary

The United States officially announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, marking a significant de-escalation in geopolitical tensions. This development led to a sharp decline in market risk-off sentiment, as investors became more confident about short-term stability in the Middle East.

Following the announcement, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields moved lower, which placed renewed pressure on the U.S. dollar and provided support to risk-sensitive assets, including global equities and cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, easing geopolitical risks reduced immediate demand for defensive positioning, although underlying uncertainties continue to support safe-haven flows.

In addition, recent U.S. economic data showed that durable goods orders declined, mainly due to volatility in transportation equipment, particularly aircraft. However, core capital goods orders continued to rise, indicating that business investment momentum remains stable and the broader economic outlook is still supported by resilient corporate spending.

Overall, the market environment remains driven by a combination of geopolitical developments, interest rate expectations, and economic data trends. In the near term, investors are likely to stay focused on incoming macroeconomic data and central bank signals, while maintaining cautious positioning amid ongoing global uncertainties.

Today's Key Events

• New Zealand Interest Rate Decision

• Eurozone PPI

• Eurozone Retail Sales

Markets will closely monitor Eurozone retail sales, with expectations that data may come in stronger than forecast.

Trading Bias

Bullish — Precious Metals (Gold, Silver)

Fear & Greed Index

The Fear & Greed Index is a key indicator used to measure market sentiment, reflecting whether investors are currently driven by fear or greed. According to the latest data, the index stands at 23 (Fear), compared to the previous reading of 19, indicating that risk-off sentiment remains elevated in the market.

The Iran conflict has significantly pushed energy prices higher, raising market concerns about persistent inflation. As a result, central banks may maintain current interest rate levels for a longer period, which has gradually increased demand for safe-haven assets. In addition, the U.S. economic system continues to be affected by tariffs, further boosting demand for defensive assets, including gold and silver.

Given the sustained risk-off sentiment in the market, investors are advised to consider positioning long in gold, silver, and U.S. Treasuries.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD (Gold)

Following U.S. President Trumps announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran, market risk-off sentiment eased significantly, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields began to trend lower, indirectly supporting further upside potential for gold.

From a technical perspective, gold has broken above the 4787 resistance level, signaling continued bullish momentum. The short-term outlook remains positive, and investors are advised to maintain long positions, with key support to monitor around the 4773 level.