Harmovest Capital | Daily Report: ISM Ahead, Breakout or Reversal?

06/04/2026 Market Briefs

• U.S. nonfarm payrolls beat expectations

• Risk-off sentiment remains weak

• U.S. Dollar Index is trending higher

Market Overview

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March, significantly exceeding expectations and reversing Februarys decline.

The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%, mainly due to a drop in labor force participation, which fell to 61.9% (lowest since Nov 2021).

Job gains were led by healthcare, while construction and transportation also increased. Government and financial sectors saw declines.

Wage growth came in below expectations at 0.2% MoM and 3.5% YoY, marking the slowest pace since May 2021.

U.S. markets were closed for Good Friday. After the release, stock futures dipped slightly, while Treasury yields moved higher.

Summary

Market activity remained subdued due to the Good Friday holiday. However, following the stronger-than-expected jobs report, stock futures declined slightly while Treasury yields increased.

Today's Key Event

U.S. ISM Services PMI

The market expects the data to come in above expectations, supported by the resilience of the U.S. economy.

Impacted Markets

• U.S. Dollar

• Precious metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum)

• U.S. equity indices

Trading Strategy

• Long precious metals

Market Sentiment Analysis

Fear & Greed Index

The Fear & Greed Index is a key indicator used to measure market sentiment, reflecting whether investors are driven by fear or greed. The latest reading stands at 19 (Extreme Fear), slightly up from 15, indicating that risk-off sentiment remains elevated.

Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran, have pushed energy prices higher, increasing concerns over persistent inflation. This may lead central banks to maintain higher interest rates, further strengthening risk aversion.

Additionally, tariff impacts on the U.S. economy have boosted demand for safe-haven assets, including gold and silver.

Given the elevated risk sentiment, a long position in gold, silver, and U.S. Treasuries is recommended.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD (Gold)

Price has tested the resistance zone around the EMA89 and EMA144 (4788) and has started to move lower.

Despite the short-term pullback, elevated risk sentiment continues to support precious metals. Gold is expected to trade in a range-bound to slightly bearish trend today, with key levels to watch between 4650 and 4727.