Ceasefire Expectations Ignite FOMO Sentiment

Market Overview

Investors are increasingly betting that the U.S.–Iran conflict is approaching its final stage, driving U.S. equities higher for a second consecutive session. The Nasdaq briefly surged as much as 1.8%; however, gains moderated after reports emerged in the afternoon that the U.S. Department of Defense is accelerating the deployment of A-10 attack aircraft. The S&P 500 closed up 0.72%, while the Nasdaq finished 1.16% higher.

The energy sector dropped nearly 5% intraday. In contrast, the memory chip segment rallied sharply, with Micron Technology gaining nearly 9% and Western Digital surging 10%. Eli Lilly rose 3.78% after its oral weight-loss drug Foundayo received FDA approval. Alphabet advanced over 3%, contributing to the “Magnificent Seven” posting their strongest two-day performance in nearly a year.

U.S. ADP employment data exceeded expectations, while the ISM manufacturing prices component signaled rising inflationary pressure. Treasury yields staged a V-shaped rebound and closed roughly flat, with the 2-year yield edging up 0.4 basis points.

Charts & Key Asset PerformancePrecious Metals & Cryptocurrencies

• Gold rose nearly 2%, marking its fourth consecutive session of gains and briefly approaching the $4,800 level

• Spot silver and COMEX copper fluctuated lower

• Bitcoin briefly broke above $69,000 before pulling back to around $68,000

• Ethereum gained 1.7%

Energy & Equities

• Crude oil plunged roughly 7% from intraday highs before rebounding and consolidating near $100

• WTI crude closed down nearly 3% in late New York trading

• Brent crude fell over 3%

• S&P 500: +0.72% to 6,575.32

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.48% to 46,565.74

• Nasdaq Composite: +1.16% to 21,840.95

• STOXX Europe 600: +2.50% to 597.69

Fixed Income & FX

• U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: +0.20 bps to 4.3186%

• U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: +0.80 bps to 3.8010%

• U.S. dollar declined for a second consecutive session

Asia Market Performance

• Shanghai Composite: +1.46% to 3,948.55

• Shenzhen Component: +1.70% to 13,706.52

• ChiNext Index: +1.96% to 3,247.52

• During the Asian session, ChiNext surged nearly 2%, led by a strong rally in healthcare stocks

• Hang Seng Index gained over 2%, while Zhipu AI surged more than 30%

Key Developments to WatchTrump: Ceasefire Conditional on Strait of Hormuz Reopening

Donald Trump stated that Irans new leadership appears more rational than its predecessor and has requested a ceasefire. However, the U.S. will only consider it once the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened and operating without disruption. Until then, he warned that the U.S. would escalate military actions significantly.

Trump also indicated that the U.S. could soon withdraw from the conflict and is “absolutely” considering exiting NATO.

Iran reiterated that it would block the Strait as a countermeasure, emphasizing that it maintains full control over the waterway and will not reopen it under U.S. pressure.

U.S. Treasury Reportedly Expects Oil to Stay Above $100

According to reports, the U.S. Treasury has adopted a baseline scenario in which oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, while not ruling out an extreme spike toward $200. The White House denied issuing any short-term price forecasts.

Sources indicate that policymakers are evaluating emergency measures, including potential restrictions on crude exports, to contain rising prices. Analysts warn of a supply “gap window,” suggesting that the real shock to U.S. markets could materialize in roughly two weeks, with diesel and jet fuel prices at risk of sharp increases, placing additional strain on consumers.

Key Data to Watch GMT+8)

20:30 (ET)

• Initial Jobless Claims (week ending March 28)

• Continuing Jobless Claims (week ending March 21)