Harmovest Capital | Daily Report: Jobs & Spending Rise — What's Next for Gold?

02/04/2026 Market Brief

Key Highlights

• U.S. ADP employment exceeded expectations
• Job growth driven mainly by education and healthcare sectors
• Gold remains in an upward trend

Market Overview

U.S. private-sector employment increased by 62,000 jobs in March, beating market expectations of 39,000. Most of the gains came from the education, healthcare, and construction sectors, while job losses were seen in trade and manufacturing. Small businesses continued to lead hiring growth.

Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in February, indicating resilient consumer spending despite a slowing labor market. Consumer demand remains a key driver of economic stability, supported by low layoff levels and steady income growth.

However, ongoing Middle East tensions continue to pose inflation risks, particularly through rising energy prices and supply disruptions.

Market Impact

U.S. Dollar | Gold | S&P 500

Stronger economic data has helped ease market risk-aversion sentiment, supporting short-term gains in risk assets. Nevertheless, safe-haven demand remains supported by geopolitical uncertainty, allowing gold to maintain its bullish trend.

Today's Key Focus

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

The market expects jobless claims to remain relatively low, reflecting stable labor demand.

Trading Strategy

Bias: Long on Precious Metals

Fear & Greed Index

The Fear & Greed Index, a key measure of market sentiment, reflects whether investors are driven by fear or greed. The latest reading stands at 43 (Fear), down from the previous level of 49, indicating that market risk-aversion sentiment is gradually easing.

Market concerns over U.S.–China trade tensions have started to decline, reducing demand for safe-haven assets. In addition, the U.S. economy has shown resilience despite tariff pressures, further supporting demand for risk assets.

As risk-aversion sentiment continues to ease, investors may consider positioning for short exposure in gold, platinum, and U.S. Treasuries.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD (Gold)

Gold prices recently tested the 4788 resistance zone, which aligns with the EMA89 and EMA144 levels, and subsequently moved into a downward trend.

In the near term, gold is expected to trade in a range-bound to slightly bearish pattern, with key focus on the 4650–4727 price zone.