U.S.-Iran Talks Set the Tone, Oil Rebounds Sharply

Market Overview

On Wednesday, global markets moved in lockstep with developments surrounding U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations. Following Iran‘s increasingly hardline stance, crude oil—after an earlier selloff—staged a sharp rebound during Thursday’s Asian session, briefly reclaiming the $80 per barrel level.

U.S. equities remained largely resilient despite volatility in energy markets. All three major indices closed higher, with the Nasdaq gaining 0.77%. Capital rotation into undervalued segments continued, as the Russell 2000 surged 1.2%, signaling renewed interest in small-cap equities.

A notable development came from Googles KV cache compression technology, which significantly reduces physical storage demand. This triggered a broad selloff in memory-related stocks, with SanDisk and Micron Technology dropping over 3.4%.

Chinese ADRs & Consumer Sector

Chinese ADRs emerged as standout performers. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index jumped 1.86%, leading gains across global equities.

Meituan surged 13.8% on stronger-than-expected performance, followed by JD.com and PDD Holdings. In contrast, collectibles giant Pop Mart saw a sharp correction, with its ADR plunging over 22%, reflecting aggressive profit-taking.

Precious Metals & Cryptocurrencies

Safe-haven demand continued to hover above the $4,500 level, with spot gold briefly testing resistance near $4,600 before retreating under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar. Silver mirrored this pattern, rallying and then pulling back.

Cryptocurrencies showed resilience. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounded approximately 2%, suggesting that liquidity remains active and continues to seek risk exposure amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Rates & FX

Bond markets stabilized, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edging down 2.3 basis points to around 4.22%, while the 2-year yield remained largely unchanged.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened, rising 0.45% and fully reversing the previous sessions losses. In the near term, a stronger dollar continues to exert pressure on non-dollar assets and commodities.

Key Themes AheadU.S. Pushes Ceasefire While Escalating Military Presence

The U.S.-Iran conflict has entered a highly tense phase where diplomacy and military escalation are unfolding simultaneously.

The U.S. has proposed a 15-point ceasefire framework while accelerating troop deployments to the Middle East—timing that closely aligns with Trumps stated deadline.

Iran, however, has rejected engagement with Trumps envoy, stating it does not want to be “deceived again.” It also warned that energy transit through the Strait of Hormuz could come under pressure. An Iranian military spokesperson remarked that “the U.S. is effectively negotiating with itself.”

Inflation Pressures Quietly Re-Accelerating

U.S. import prices rose 1.3% MoM in February, marking the largest increase since March 2022 and the highest YoY level since February 2025.

Excluding petroleum, import prices still climbed 1.2% MoM, the strongest increase since January 2022—indicating that price pressures are broadening beyond energy.

Export prices also surged 1.5%, the largest gain since May 2022. As this data predates the escalation in Middle East tensions, inflation risks remain skewed to the upside.

Key Data to Watch （ＧＭＴ＋８）

• 20:30 (ET) – Initial Jobless Claims (Week ending March 21)

• 22:30 (ET) – EIA Natural Gas Storage (Week ending March 20)