FPG GBPUSD Market Report March 4, 2026

On the H4 timeframe chart, GBPUSD previously moved within two relatively stable sideways channels before experiencing a significant breakdown from 1.3574 to 1.3252. This sharp decline established a clearly defined bearish channel, marked by consistent lower highs and lower lows. After reaching 1.3252, price staged a modest corrective rebound; however, the overall structure remains intact to the downside. Currently, GBPUSD is trading around 1.3337 and continues to fluctuate within the bearish channel, indicating that selling pressure still dominates the broader short-term trend.

From a technical perspective, Bollinger Bands are moderately expanded, reflecting sustained volatility during the downward move. Price remains positioned below the middle band, signaling that bearish momentum persists despite short-term corrective bounces. MACD (12,26,9) is trading below the zero line, with the histogram still in negative territory, confirming underlying downside momentum. Meanwhile, Bears Power (13) remains below zero and continues to show seller dominance, reinforcing the prevailing bearish bias. Overall, technical indicators align with the ongoing downward channel structure.

Fundamentally, the strengthening of the USD is occurring broadly across the market, not only against GBP but also against other major currencies, keeping GBPUSD under sustained bearish pressure amid rising geopolitical tensions that drive safe-haven flows into the US Dollar. Diverging monetary policy expectations between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve—with the BoE perceived as relatively more dovish—have widened yield differentials and weighed on the Pound. Softer UK economic data has further increased rate-cut expectations, limiting rebound potential. Meanwhile, a stronger US Dollar Index (DXY) environment and a persistent lower-high technical structure continue to favor a sell-on-rallies strategy, maintaining the downside bias.

Market Observation & Strategy Advice

1. Current Position: GBPUSD is trading around 1.3337, remaining within a well-defined bearish channel after declining from 1.3574 to 1.3252.

2. Resistance Zone: Immediate resistance is located at 1.3433, followed by stronger resistance near 1.3574, which marks the previous major swing high and channel ceiling area.

3. Support Zone: Nearest support stands at 1.3252. A break below this level may expose further downside extension toward lower support levels.

4. Indicator Observation: MACD remains below zero with negative histogram bars, while Bears Power stays in negative territory—confirming ongoing seller dominance and downside momentum.

5. Trading Strategy Suggestions:

• Bearish Continuation: Consider sell-on-rallies opportunities near channel resistance, targeting a retest of 1.3252.

• Breakdown Scenario: A sustained break below 1.3252 may accelerate bearish momentum and open room for further downside extension.

• Risk Management: If price breaks and closes above 1.3433, the bearish channel structure would be invalidated, requiring reassessment of the downside bias.

Market Performance:

Forex Last Price % Change

EUR/USD 1.1603 −0.07%

USD/JPY 157.56 −0.08%

Today's Key Economic Calendar:

US: API Crude Oil Stock Change

AU: Ai Group Industry Index

AU: GDP Growth Rate QoQ & YoY

CN: NBS Manufacturing & Non Manufacturing PMI

CN: RD Manufacturing & Services PMI

JP: Consumer Confidence

EU: Unemployment Rate

US: MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate

US: ADP Employment Change

US: ISM Services PMI

US: EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change

Risk Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investments involve risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult your financial advisor for personalized investment strategies.