ETO Markets Global Pulse: Gold Breaks 5400 as Hormuz Closure Risk Spurs Safe-Haven Surge

Market Review

According to ETO Markets monitoring, on March 2 (Monday) spot gold experienced sharp intraday swings, briefly breaking above the USD 5,400 level and touching a high of USD 5,419.01/oz before retreating. It closed at USD 5,321.97/oz in late New York trading, up 0.3% on the day.

During Asian trading on March 3 (Tuesday), spot gold remained elevated, fluctuating around USD 5,332.87/oz.

Global Headlines

Iran Announces Closure of the Strait of Hormuz

Sources linked to Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, warning that vessels attempting to pass would be targeted. The strait accounts for roughly 20% of global crude oil shipments, sharply elevating energy supply risks.

U.S. Preparing Potential Large-Scale Strike Within 24 Hours

Senior U.S. officials indicated preparations for a possible large-scale military strike against Iran within the next 24 hours, with subsequent phases potentially targeting missile production facilities and naval assets.

Trump Signals 4–5 Week Military Campaign

Former President Trump stated that operations against Iran could last four to five weeks or longer, emphasizing efforts to significantly weaken Irans missile and naval capabilities.

U.S. Tariff Refund Litigation Resumes

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit has remanded tariff-related cases to the U.S. Court of International Trade. Importers are seeking formal refund procedures, and legal disputes over tariff revenues remain ongoing.

March Fed Hold Probability Rises to 97.5%

According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of the Federal Reserve holding rates unchanged in March has risen to 97.5%. Expectations for easing continue to shift later, with the probability of a cumulative 25bp cut by June at 40.3%.

ETO Markets Analyst View (Spot Gold)

USD 5,365 now stands as the key pivot level. Below this level, short-term bias favors pullbacks toward USD 5,295 and USD 5,260. A sustained break above USD 5,365 would reopen room to retest USD 5,415 and USD 5,460.

RSI signals remain mixed, with momentum lacking a decisive directional structure. Escalating geopolitical tensions continue to expand safe-haven premia, but volatility at elevated levels has intensified. Investors should closely monitor resistance shifts and carefully manage trading rhythm and risk exposure.

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