ETO Markets Global Pulse: Gold Tests 5200 as ETF Holdings Hit Three-Year High

Market Review

According to ETO Markets monitoring, on Feb 25 (Wednesday), spot gold rose 0.4% to close near USD 5,164/oz, after briefly climbing 1.5% intraday to a high of USD 5,217.63/oz. April U.S. gold futures gained around 1%, settling at USD 5,226.20/oz, with prices maintaining a high-level consolidation structure.

During Asian trading on Feb 26 (Thursday), spot gold moved in a narrow range around USD 5,167/oz, with short-term momentum stabilizing.

Global Headlines

Gold ETF Holdings Reach Highest Since 2021

SPDR Gold Trust holdings increased to 1,097.62 tonnes, up 3.43 tonnes on the day, marking the highest level since February 2021. Institutional reports suggest that while short-term momentum may moderate, tariff uncertainty and asset allocation demand could limit downside. Some projections see gold potentially testing USD 6,000/oz over the next 12 months.

March Rate Cut Expectations Nearly Priced Out

Rate futures show a 98.0% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in March, with only a 2.0% chance of a 25bp cut. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25bp reduction has fallen to 39.5%, reflecting further convergence in expectations for mid-year easing.

U.S. Prepares New Tariff Measures

Following a Supreme Court ruling invalidating parts of previous tariff policy, the U.S. administration is reportedly exploring alternative legal avenues to impose new tariffs on selected industries. Policy uncertainty continues to influence global trade and inflation expectations.

U.S. Mortgage Rates Fall to 2022 Low

The 30-year mortgage rate declined to 6.09%, the lowest level since 2022. Refinancing activity reached a five-month high, providing near-term support to the housing market.

Third Round of U.S.–Iran Talks Approaches

Irans foreign minister arrived in Geneva for a new round of indirect talks. U.S. officials expressed cautious optimism but did not rule out military options, keeping geopolitical risk elevated.

ETO Markets Analyst View (Spot Gold)

Technically, USD 5,215 serves as a key near-term pivot. Sustained trading below this level may lead to a retest of support around USD 5,125 and USD 5,090. A decisive break above USD 5,215 would open scope toward USD 5,250 and USD 5,290.

RSI remains slightly below the neutral 50% threshold, indicating momentum has yet to fully turn constructive. Short-term flows remain two-sided.

Overall, amid rising institutional allocations, converging rate expectations, and tariff uncertainty, golds elevated structure remains intact. However, upside momentum requires further confirmation. Investors should carefully manage trading pace and risk exposure.

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