DBG Markets: Market Report for Feb 26, 2026

Tech Bulls Charge Past Tariff Fears, Dollar & Oil Retreat;Outlook for Dollar, Gold & Oil

The global market narrative experienced a violent structural shift over the past 24 hours. The suffocating anxiety surrounding global trade wars has been overshadowed by the Nvidia earnings report.

Meanwhile, diplomatic developments in the Middle East are introducing fresh volatility into the energy markets, creating a highly dynamic trading environment across all asset classes.

Nvidia Earning Shadow Tariff Fears

Nvidia's highly anticipated earnings report has single-handedly rescued the US equities market from the brink of a deeper sell-off, effectively overshadowing the looming threat of universal tariffs. The tech giant delivered a blowout quarter alongside explosive forward guidance, completely silencing recent anxieties over “AI fatigue” and the cannibalization of legacy tech revenues.

However, broader market sentiment remains heavily constrained and indecisive, given that uncertainty still lies ahead regarding tariffs and geopolitical risks. Hence, we need to see if this fresh optimism is a temporary bounce or a strong tailwind for the stock market.

UT100, Daily Chart

The Nasdaq 100 has successfully reclaimed the 25,000 level following the Nvidia earnings beat.

For the near-term outlook, holding above this 25,000 pivot is essential to sustain bullish momentum and target the 25,800 resistance zone. If it fails to hold, tariff fears will quickly rush back in to pressure the index.

US Dollar: Failed to Gain from Fed Catalyst

With the sudden explosion in risk appetite, the Dollar also faced selling pressure. The US Dollar Index remains stubbornly capped below the 98.00 level, closing lower despite an initial rally.

Even though Fed rate cut expectations have been pushed back—with the market now pricing in only a 39.4% probability of a June cut—this failed to provide the Dollar with the necessary catalyst.

This shows that the market is currently hesitant to go long on the Greenback, and currency traders are largely sidelined.

USD Index, H2 Chart

Following another failed attempt to test the 97.80 - 98.00 resistance zone, the US Dollar failed to extend its gains into a unilateral uptrend. This suggests the Greenback may be entering a consolidation phase within the broader macro trend.

Currently, the 97.50 support level is facing the risk of a breakdown. If it decisively breaks below this level, or if price action continues to face pressure below 97.50, the Dollar could open up further downside space. The bears' next downside target will be aimed at the 97.10 level.

Gold: Short Pause？

The explosive rally in equities has introduced some natural near-term headwinds for safe-haven assets, prompting a minor technical cooling in Gold as capital rotates back into riskier tech assets.

However, the underlying structural foundation for bullion remains entirely intact. The overarching threats of sticky inflation, unresolved tariff wars, and global uncertainty prevent any meaningful capitulation from gold bulls.

XAUUSD, H1 Chart

Gold continues to consolidate its recent gains above 5100, despite a temporary pause. The technical setup and macro outlook remain highly favorable for the precious metal.

For the near-term, the 5150 area is now acting as a critical pivot to determine today's movement; staying above this level would point to further upside in intraday trading.

For the broader term, as long as prices strictly hold above the newly established 5100 psychological floor, the overarching uptrend remains heavily secured. Buyers are likely using this tech-induced pause to accumulate positions, waiting for the equity euphoria to settle.

US-Iran Talks and Oil Outlook

Adding a massive new dynamic to the commodities complex, emerging reports of renewed US-Iran diplomatic talks have triggered a sharp repricing in global crude oil, with prices facing pressure near their 7-month highs.

If the talks conclude positively, the sudden prospect of easing sanctions and the potential return of millions of Iranian barrels to the global market would severely dampen the bullish energy narrative, aggressively wiping out the geopolitical risk premiums that were previously priced in.

USOIL, H4 Chart

This diplomatic pivot has placed heavy pressure to cap oil's upside, with WTI (USOIL) facing resistance near the 66.00 level.

Oil prices are currently testing critical technical support levels as traders rapidly digest the implications of a sudden, massive supply influx. If diplomatic talks progress positively, we could see oil prices decisively break below current consolidation zones.

A break below the 65.20 – 65.00 level would trigger renewed selling pressure in the market.