Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Bullish Momentum Meets a Pullback as Hawkish Fed Rhetoric Pressure

25 February 2026 — After four consecutive sessions of strong gains, the gold market saw a sharp correction on Tuesday (24 February). Spot gold plunged from a three-week high, at one point dropping nearly 2.5 percent intraday to around USD 5,094, before settling at USD 5,141.43.

The sell-off was mainly driven by hawkish remarks from multiple Federal Reserve officials, who stressed the persistence of inflation. Market expectations for a March rate cut have now almost disappeared, while the probability of a June cut has fallen sharply to 43.9 percent. The return of tightening expectations has weighed on non-interest-bearing assets such as gold.

Although underlying uncertainty continues to provide structural support for gold prices, the combination of profit-taking in futures markets and cooling rate-cut expectations has led to a divergence between gold and silver. Supported by safe-haven demand, silver has shown relatively better resilience amid volatility, while gold may continue to test the strength of support near the USD 5,100 level in the short term.

Asset Performance and Fundamental Overview

1. US Equity Markets

Index Performance

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 49,174.50, up 0.76 percent.

• The Dow significantly outperformed broader markets, indicating a rotation back into blue-chip value stocks with stable cash flows amid macro uncertainty.

• S&P 500 Index: 6,898.47, up 0.11 percent.

• The index showed clear consolidation near the 6,900 level, suggesting a temporary balance between bulls and bears at elevated valuations.

• Nasdaq 100 Index: 25,029.25, unchanged (0.00 percent).

• Growth and technology stocks lacked clear direction as markets continued to reassess interest-rate expectations and digest prior valuation premiums.

Stock in Focus

• Tesla: USD 409.38, up 2.39 percent.

• As a leading growth stock, Teslas stronger-than-expected performance helped ease weakness in the tech sector, showing that sector-specific positives can still attract higher risk appetite.

2. Foreign Exchange Market

• US Dollar Index: 97.854, down 0.03 percent. The dollar remained range-bound at high levels, indicating that markets have largely priced in the Fed‘s policy path and are lacking fresh macro catalysts.

• USD/JPY: 155.865, down 0.02 percent. The yen continued to hover above the 155 level as investors cautiously monitored the Bank of Japan’s stance on liquidity withdrawal.

• EUR/USD: 1.17765, up 0.03 percent. The euro is undergoing a mild recovery after testing range lows, though upside remains limited due to weak underlying momentum in the eurozone economy.

3. Precious Metals and Commodities

Precious Metals

• Spot Gold: USD 5,146.95 per ounce, up 0.06 percent. After recent sharp swings, gold has entered a high-level consolidation phase. While safe-haven demand remains, momentum for chasing higher prices has weakened.

• Spot Silver: USD 87.1525 per ounce, down 0.03 percent. Silver underperformed gold slightly, reflecting pressure on industrial demand expectations amid a slowing macro backdrop.

Commodities

• Crude Oil: USD 66.31 per barrel, up 0.17 percent. Supported by potential geopolitical risks and expectations of minor supply adjustments, oil prices remained firm around the USD 66 level.

4. Crypto Assets

• Bitcoin: USD 64,239, up 0.28 percent. Following a technical pullback, Bitcoin found short-term support above the USD 64,000 level, with markets awaiting fresh liquidity signals.

• Ethereum: USD 1,855.6, up 0.20 percent. Ethereum continued to rebound in line with the broader market, though its higher-beta characteristics have yet to fully assert themselves in the current risk-averse environment.

5. Todays focus

• Australia January CPI (month-on-month / year-on-year)

• Australia January Trimmed Mean CPI (month-on-month)

• Speech by the US President

• Speech by RBA Governor Michele Bullock