DBG Markets: Market Report for Feb 23, 2026

Weekly Outlook: Stagflation Fears and Tariff Turmoil;Whats Next for Dollar, Equities, Gold & Yen？

The market enters the week grappling with a precarious dual-threat: a cooling U.S. economy and a renewed trade war.

Following last Friday's "data dump," the narrative has shifted toward a potential stagflation scenario—slower growth coupled with sticky inflation—while a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs triggered an immediate and aggressive retaliation from the White House, adding another layer of uncertainty to the market this week.

Stagflation Risk: The GDP and PCE “Checked”

Last Fridays economic reports delivered a significant blow to the "soft landing" narrative. The U.S. Q4 GDP (Advance Estimate) clocked in at a mere 1.4%, well below the anticipated 2.8%. Compounding this growth slowdown was the December Core PCE reading, which rose 0.4% month-on-month, pushing the annual rate to 3.0%.

· Equities are facing a "valuation squeeze." Low growth threatens corporate earnings, while sticky inflation prevents the Fed from providing liquidity via rate cuts. This is particularly bearish for high-growth tech sectors (Nasdaq), which are sensitive to both higher yields and slowing consumer demand.

· At the same time, these stagflation risks pushed the dollar to give up more of its gains in the latter half of last week, after the greenback gained strength in the early week. However, the outlook for the dollar may remain clouded.

Into this week, both US Equities and the Dollar may face a harsh reality check on such macros, keeping the outlook uncertain.

Trump‘s Tariff Turmoil

Added to the uncertainty, the Trump tariff outlook was set ablaze over the weekend. On February 20, the Supreme Court ruled that President Trump’s earlier tariffs were illegal.

However, the victory for trade advocates was short-lived. In a swift response, the President signed a new executive order over the weekend, imposing a 15% universal tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act.

This move has reintroduced a massive "uncertainty premium," potentially weighing on both the US Dollar and Equities market at the same time this week.

US Dollar & Equities Outlook

US Dollar Index

While tariffs typically support the Dollar as a protectionist measure, the legal uncertainty and potential for global trade stagnation are creating a "risk-off" environment. This shift favored safe-haven alternatives like the Yen and Gold over the Greenback in early Monday trade.

USD Index, Daily Chart

Mixed data has flashed a “stagflation” warning, exerting pressure on the dollar in the latter half of the week. As the dollar remains under pressure below the 98.00 handle, the outlook for this week remains clouded.

This week, the upper resistance of the 97.50 – 97.80 continues to be the ceiling to watch for the dollar's move. This macro outlook could pressure the US Dollar, likely seeing it break below 97.00, while an extended downside move would target the 96.00 – 96.50 area.

US Equities: Nasdaq Outlook

UT100, Daily Chart

The index continues to face pressure near the 25,000 mark. The Nasdaq is currently desperate for Nvidia to deliver a forward guidance on Wednesday that far exceeds expectations in order to reverse the current bearish rotation.

However, without a catalyst to bolster this, if the tariff outlook remains clouded, it could pressure the Nasdaq—especially if the 24,750 – 25,000 zone fails to be regained as support.

Gold: Reclaiming the Safe-Haven Mandate

Gold has emerged as the clear winner of the recent volatility. The metal successfully reclaimed the $5,000 "Iron Gate" and, more importantly, closed the weekly session above $5,100.

The combination of stagflation risks and tariff chaos has driven investors away from fiat and equities toward bullion. Unlike the Dollar, which is weighed down by domestic growth concerns, Gold is benefiting purely from its status as a hedge against systemic risk.

XAUUSD, H2 Chart

With the successful reclaim of $5,100, the next major upside magnet sits at $5,240 - $5,300. As long as Gold holds above the $5,000 support level, the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

Specifically, the recent ascending triangle breakout suggests a bullish continuation of the broader trend.

Japanese Yen: Alternative to Gold Safe-Haven？

The Yen may be another safe-haven flow if we see a broad sell-off in US or global equities as tariffs worsen, especially driven by the unwinding of carry trades.

This leaves USDJPY as another key focus currency pair if the market shifts toward aversion.

USDJPY, Daily Chart

Technically, USDJPY shows a potential bearish reversal, leaving 154.50 – 155.00 as the key resistance zone to verify the bearish move. If this level holds as resistance, further downside is likely.

Bottom Line

We are witnessing a structural shift in risk sentiment. The transition from "Growth Euphoria" to "Stagflation Anxiety" and “Tariff Uncertainty” is forcing a massive repricing across global assets. For this week, visibility is everything.