ETO Markets Global Pulse: Gold Breaks $5,000, Risk Premium Jumps

Market Review

According to ETO Markets monitoring, on January 23 (Friday), spot gold repeatedly set fresh record highs, briefly topping at USD 4,989.73 per ounce. Gold gained 8.5% for the week, marking its strongest weekly rise since March 2020.

On January 26 (Monday), spot gold extended its rally and broke above the USD 5,000 milestone for the first time. Prices hit an intraday high of USD 5,031.58 per ounce, up around 0.9%, as safe-haven demand stayed elevated.

Global Headlines

1) EU Extends Tariff Pause Again

After Trump walked back tariff threats against some EU countries, the EU decided to extend the suspension of its retaliatory tariffs on USD-denominated U.S. goods worth EUR 93 billion by another six months. EU Commission spokesperson Olof Gill said the Commission will propose extending the pause that was due to expire on February 7, stressing diplomacy and political engagement as the preferred route.

2) Trump Claims Greenland Base Sovereignty

Trump said the U.S. expects to secure “sovereignty” over the area in Greenland where a U.S. military base is located, saying negotiations are “going well.” The arrangement was described as stopping short of a full takeover of Greenland, but would place U.S. facilities including the Pituffik Space Base under U.S. sovereign control. Greenland officials pushed back, reiterating sovereignty is a non-negotiable red line.

3) Israel Raises Alert Over Spillover

Israel‘s Northern Command chief said the IDF has moved to a higher state of readiness to prepare for potential spillover risks if the U.S. strikes Iran. He cited stronger U.S. deployments across the Gulf and the Middle East, warning Iran’s response could impact Israel and raising concerns over whether Hezbollah could join a broader conflict.

4) Russia Says Ukraine Talks Progress

Russia said work on resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict is ongoing and has made progress. It added that negotiations should follow the framework agreed during a Russia-U.S. leaders meeting, and disclosed a security working group involving Russia, the U.S., and Ukraine held its first meeting. The talks are scheduled to run for two days, marking the first three-way contact since the conflict escalated.

5) Morgan Stanley Flags $350B Refunds

Morgan Stanley said retroactive tax cuts could deliver around USD 350 billion in refunds to U.S. consumers in Q1 2026, up roughly 20% year-on-year. The cash flow may provide a short-term consumption lift, but it is likely to skew toward higher-income and older cohorts with lower marginal propensity to spend. The bank also noted it may not offset structural headwinds from higher tariffs and weaker imports.

ETO Markets Analyst View (Spot Gold)

Spot gold remains biased to the upside in the near term. The technical framework uses USD 4,540 as a key pivot. If prices hold above this level, the structure favors further upside, with targets at USD 5,250 and USD 5,600. If gold slips below USD 4,540, a corrective phase may follow, with downside levels to watch at USD 4,270 and USD 4,000. With volatility elevated at record highs, sharp pullbacks around key levels remain a clear risk. RSI is trending higher.

With data and event risks clustering, price action may alternate between spikes and fast retracements. Stay alert to macro and geopolitical headlines and manage risk proactively.

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