FPG USDCAD Market Report January 5, 2026

On the USDCAD H1 chart, after previously experiencing a strong bearish rally late last year that declined from 1.3805, the pair has shown a clear trend reversal. Price rebounded decisively from the 1.3642 demand zone and subsequently formed a well-defined bullish channel, signaling a shift in market structure. Currently, USDCAD is trading around 1.3742 and continues to respect the ascending channel, indicating sustained bullish control despite minor intraday pullbacks.

Technically, price action remains constructive as USDCAD consistently prints higher highs and higher lows within the bullish channel structure. The pair is holding above dynamic support formed by the rising channel base and short-term moving averages, confirming trend stability. MFI (14) is currently around 68.78, approaching the upper zone, reflecting increasing buying pressure while not yet signaling extreme overbought conditions. Meanwhile, MACD (12,26,9) remains above the zero line with a positive histogram, indicating strengthening bullish momentum and trend continuation bias rather than exhaustion at this stage.

From a fundamental and macro perspective, USDCAD remains sensitive to global geopolitical developments and recent US news flow, including evolving US–Venezuela relations. Heightened geopolitical uncertainty tends to support the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, while shifts in US foreign policy or sanctions impacting Venezuela may influence global oil supply dynamics, an important driver for the Canadian dollar. As a result, ongoing geopolitical headlines and US policy developments could continue to reinforce volatility and directional momentum in USDCAD, particularly if risk sentiment shifts abruptly.

Market Observation & Strategy Advice

1. Current Position: USDCAD is trading around 1.3742, maintaining bullish structure inside the ascending channel.

2. Resistance Zone: Immediate resistance is located near 1.3753–1.3805, marking a key supply zone from the previous bearish peak.

3. Support Zone: Primary support rests at 1.3700, with stronger demand seen around 1.3642, the base of the bullish reversal.

4. Indicators: MFI is elevated but not extreme, while MACD remains positive, supporting continued bullish momentum. The broader intraday trend has shifted to bullish, with pullbacks viewed as corrective within the channel.

5. Trading Strategy Suggestions:

• Buy on pullback: Look for bullish continuation signals near 1.3710 within the channel support.

• Trend continuation play: A clean break and hold above 1.3753 could open the path toward 1.3805.

• Risk management: A sustained breakdown below 1.3700 would invalidate the bullish channel and require reassessment.

Market Performance:

Forex Last Price % Change

EUR/USD 1.1706 −0.10%

USD/JPY 157.18 +0.24%

Today's Key Economic Calendar:

US: Fed Kashkari Speech

CN: RD Services PMI

UK: BoE Consumer Credit

UK: Mortgage Approvals & Lending

US: ISM Manufacturing PMI

Risk Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investments involve risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult your financial advisor for personalized investment strategies.