November's inflation report is the first to be released after the shutdown. Here's what to expect

Wall Street is awaiting Thursday's release of the November consumer price index report, as it will mark the first reading for the period since the record-setting U.S. government shutdown ended last month.

According to economists surveyed by Dow Jones, the report – which tracks the average change in prices people pay for a range of goods and services – is expected to show a 12-month inflation rate of 3.1%. When excluding food and energy, core CPI is forecast to post an annual rate of 3.0%.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has said the release “will not include 1-month percent changes for November 2025 where the October 2025 data are missing,” as the agency canceled the October inflation report in late November, weeks before the Federal Reserve's final meeting of the year. September's CPI data – the most recent CPI report to be published and only piece of economic data released during the shutdown – showed an annual reading of 3.0% for the headline and core measures.

“The psychological distinction between a two handle and a three handle is going to be paramount,” José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, said in an interview with CNBC.

While the consensus estimate shows the annual rate hitting the 3% threshold for the month, the senior economist is anticipating the headline and core readings to be lower than expected at 2.9% each, though he thinks that the range of possible outcomes for headline could be between that figure and 3.1%.

If the report were to show a 2.9% reading, it could offer some positive momentum in stocks heading into 2026. In fact, Torres believes that such a number would clear the path for a so-called Santa Claus rally. He also thinks it would have an impact on the interest rate outlook for next year – a period during which the Fed projects one rate cut.

“It really would strengthen monetary policy easing expectations in the last inflation report – CPI report – of 2025 if we could keep inflation in the twos rather than it increasing up to the threes, because that'll allow more interest rate cuts next year,” Torres added.