DBG Markets: Market Report for Dec 26, 2025

Post-Christmas Market Outlook: “Quiet but Risky”; Whats Next for Bitcoin & Gold？

Markets have reopened for the first post-Christmas trading session in a state of cautious digestion. Following fresh record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Christmas Eve—driven by the upside surprise in US Q3 GDP growth to 4.3%—attention has shifted toward consolidation.

· Gold Performance: Precious metals continue to demonstrate remarkable strength. After a brief dip toward $4,450, gold gapped higher during the Asian session, reclaiming and holding the $4,500 psychological barrier.

· Bitcoin Resilience: Bitcoin (BTC) is currently hovering near $87,000, underperforming relative to gold as it approaches a major derivatives reset.

Gold Reclaims the $4,500 Frontier

Gold continues to lead the year-end “Santa Rally,” maintaining structural strength despite thinning liquidity across global desks. The $4,500 handle now carries more psychological weight than technical resistance. After briefly dipping toward $4,450 before the Christmas holiday, gold gapped higher in Asia, reopening above $4,500 and briefly touching new highs.

As long as prices hold above the $4,450–$4,440 support zone, the broader bullish structure remains intact.

XAUUSD, M15 Chart

In the near term, if $4,500 holds as a new support, intraday upside remains likely. Conversely, failure to maintain $4,500 could trigger consolidation within the $4,450–$4,500 tactical range, creating potential range-trading opportunities for day traders.

Silver has tracked golds momentum, gapping higher to fresh record highs near $75.

XAGUSD, H1 Chart

Immediate support for silver lies at $72.60, with the $72.60–$75 range serving as a tactical zone. Unless silver decisively breaks below $72.60, the bullish outlook remains intact, though a breach could trigger short-term pullbacks.

Cryptocurrency Market: $23 Billion Derivatives Expiry

While gold flexes its strength, the cryptocurrency market faces structural pressure amid massive derivatives expirations.

Bitcoin Outlook

Bitcoin trades near $87,000, underperforming relative to precious metals and facing key resistance at $90,000.

BTCUSD, H4 Chart

The key trading range remains $85,000–$94,000, currently converging toward $85,000–$90,000. This compression suggests mounting bearish pressure despite $85,000 support holding. A decisive break below $85,000 could drive BTC lower, while traders should remain cautious amid the ongoing extended consolidation.

Ethereum Outlook

ETHUSD, H4 Chart

Ethereum shows similar pressure, trading within $2,800–$3,060. Downside compression indicates continued bearish bias. Only a reclaim above $3,060 would shift the short-term outlook.

Today marks one of the largest options expiries of the year, with over $23 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts set to settle. In a thin liquidity environment, this concentrated clearing can amplify volatility and trigger sudden price adjustments.

Bottom Line: The “Quiet but Risky” Liquidity Gap

Traders must exercise caution as the market navigates a unique liquidity gap today.

· Market Participation: While NYSE and Nasdaq remain open, major European hubs—including the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and Frankfurt (DAX)—are closed for Boxing Day.

· Liquidity Risk: Low European participation means U.S. session price moves may be misleading. Thin liquidity allows smaller orders to disproportionately impact prices, leading to erratic gaps and false breakouts.

Overall, the market remains structurally bullish for gold, cautiously consolidating equities, and range-bound but pressured in crypto. Extreme attention to liquidity risk is required, particularly for derivative-sensitive instruments.