Fed won't get key inflation data before next rate decision as BLS cancels October CPI release

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said it was canceling the release of the October consumer price index, leaving the Federal Reserve without a key piece of inflation data to ponder when it next decides on interest rates on Dec. 10.

The CPI data, previously scheduled to be released on Nov. 7, was canceled because the government shutdown made it impossible for the BLS to “retroactively collect” certain parts of survey data, the agency said on its website.

November's CPI data, previously scheduled to be released on Dec. 10, will now be released on Dec. 18 after the Fed decision, the BLS said.

Bureau data collectors compile the index through several methods, including personal visits and phone calls that were not possible during the shutdown. The BLS also uses online data and household surveys that also would make it difficult to retroactively collect information.

In addition to the Fed announcement, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said another key inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, “is to be rescheduled” though no firm date has been announced. The Fed uses the PCE price index as its main inflation forecasting tool. The gauge had been set for release Nov. 26.

Fed officials have voiced concerns about being in a data fog as they try to formulate monetary policy. The central bank's Federal Open Market Committee approved a quarter percentage point rate cut in late October, but minutes from the meeting reflected worries over getting an incomplete picture.

“This is a temporary state of affairs. And we're going to do our jobs, we're going to collect every scrap of data we can find, evaluate it, and think carefully about it,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said after the October meeting. “What do you do if you're driving in the fog? You slow down. ... There's a possibility that it would make sense to be more cautious about moving.”

However, New York Fed President John Williams said Friday he thinks the Fed probably has “room for a further adjustment in the near term,” implying the likelihood of a cut sometime soon.

Other Fed officials, such as Governor Christopher Waller, have said policymakers still have enough information to make informed decisions, even with the data drought from the shutdown.