Crude Oil Rebounds After a “Flash Crash”; Bitcoin Nears $92,000

Market Overview

With U.S. equities closed for Thanksgiving, index futures edged slightly higher, while investor attention shifted to Europe. The pan-European STOXX index extended its winning streak to a fourth session, hitting a two-week high. M&A rumors dominated market sentiment: Allfunds surged 22% after Deutsche Börse signaled acquisition interest, and Puma jumped nearly 19% following reports that Anta and Li Ning were exploring potential bids.

In FX markets, the U.S. Dollar Index fell to a one-week low. Offshore RMB saw sharp intraday volatility—after three consecutive sessions of hitting a 13-month high, it reversed and fell more than 100 pips. Cryptocurrencies strengthened, with Bitcoin gaining 2% intraday and approaching the $92,000 level for the first time in a week.

Across commodities, crude oil extended its rebound for a second day, supported by OPEC+ maintaining its production freeze. However, optimism over possible Russia-Ukraine peace talks triggered a sudden “flash crash” mid-session. Spot gold remained under pressure, pulling back from its two-week high.

Hot Topics Ahead● Downside Risks for Crude Oil

Markets are reassessing the likelihood of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, pushing Brent crude down 5% in a week to $62 per barrel. According to Goldman Sachs quantitative modeling, if a deal is reached, average crude prices in 2026 could fall another $4–$5 per barrel. Refined products may face even steeper pressure, with European diesel crack spreads potentially declining by an additional $6–$8 per barrel.

● The Real “Whale” in Gold

Stablecoin giant Tether has emerged as a new force in the gold market. As of September 30, the company held 116 tons of physical gold, making it the largest non-central-bank holder globally. Gold prices have risen roughly $2,000 across two major rallies this year—the second wave aligning almost perfectly with Tethers accelerated gold purchases.

This dynamic also raises structural risks: if demand for stablecoins reverses abruptly for any reason, selling pressure could be transmitted directly into Tether‘s substantial gold reserves. The firm’s aggressive accumulation signals a long-term bet on tokenized physical gold.

Key Data to Watch

16:55 — EU: Germany November Unemployment Change (SA)

21:00 — EU: Germany November CPI (Preliminary, MoM)