New Japan PM Creates Oversold JPY- Week 47| Technical Analysis by Jasper Lawler

Week Ahead📅 24–30 November, 2025

Uncertainty remains elevated as global indices pullback from record levels driven by uncertainty around rich AI-related valuation. The Japanese yen bounced back on Friday after a tough week in response to the new Japanese Prime Ministers intentions for stimulus.

The UK Autumn Budget and the RBNZ rate decision are the two scheduled headline events, although delayed US releases (potentially including PCE and durable goods) could drop at short notice and drive volatility.

Week in Review💹 Price Action

Nasdaq 100:

Dropped roughly 5% on the week, with Nvidias strong earnings unable to offset pressure from stretched valuations and risk-off flows.

Crude Oil (WTI/Brent):

Fell about 3% as inventories rose and hopes for a Ukraine peace framework reduced geopolitical risk premia.

US Dollar Index (DXY):

Reclaimed the 100 level as traders cut back expectations for a December Fed rate reduction.

USDJPY:

Weakened further as Japans soft GDP and fresh stimulus headlines added to yen underperformance.

Bitcoin:

Declined more than 10%, slipping to April lows amid liquidity concerns and broader de-risking across speculative assets.

📰 News

Geopolitical tensions escalate:

A leaked White House Russia–Ukraine peace proposal circulated in Washington.  UK political tension increased amid rumours of a potential move against PM Starmer.

Fed outlook jolted by delayed US labour data:

The BLS restarted publication of shutdown-delayed releases, with September NFP surprising sharply to the upside at 119k vs 50k expected. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, the highest since 2021.

FOMC minutes highlight divisions:

The minutes showed a split committee debating whether inflation or labour-market cooling is the bigger risk, casting doubt on a December rate cut. Cut probabilities fell below 40%.

UK inflation cools further:

October CPI slowed to 3.6% from 3.8%, with core at 3.4%. Retail sales underperformed at 1.2% YoY vs 2.5% expected, adding pressure ahead of the Autumn Budget.

Japan inflation edges up; officials warn on yen:

CPI rose to 3.0%, slightly below expectations. Q3 GDP contracted –0.4%, as forecast. Policymakers expressed concern over yen weakness.

Economic Calendar

UK Autumn Budget – Wednesday, 26 Nov

Markets await clarity after weeks of contradictory leaks. A fiscal gap of £30–50bn needs addressing.

RBNZ Rate Decision – Wednesday, 26 Nov

Another 25bp cut is expected following Octobers jumbo cut. Messaging around early-2026 easing will be key for NZD.

Possible US Data Releases (timing uncertain)

• Core PCE (Sep) – expected at 2.8%, down from 2.9%

• Durable Goods Orders

• Flash Q3 GDP – consensus 3.25%

• Any release could hit markets hard given the lack of visibility since the shutdown.

Eurozone Flash CPI – Friday, 29 Nov

Germany expected at 2.3%, France at 1.1%.

Other Releases

• Germany Ifo Business Climate – Monday

• US Consumer Confidence – Tuesday

• Australia Monthly CPI – Wednesday

• Japan Unemployment – Friday

Technical Analysis

We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and signals.

EUR/JPYSetup

Bullish trend is overbought - short term bearish

• Bearish Shooting star pattern on weekly chart

• Bearish Evening star pattern on daily chart

• Daily RSI down from very overbought reading

• Price well above 20/50 day moving average zone

Commentary

There have been no meaningful corrections since the bullish trend began at 155. A large reversal from above 180 could be the start of one.

Strategy

• Sell rebound towards supply zone starting at 182

• Sell on break below last weeks low price (179.80)



Gold (XAU/USD)

• Setup

Bullish trend / Correction

• Gold still above 50 day moving average

• Daily RSI stable around 50 level

• Has made a 50% correction of rally since breakout at 3400

• Commentary

It seems likely gold needs to first complete an ABCD correction before moving higher - meaning one more lower low. However, support at 3920 could hold, offering good R:R opportunities - even if 4200 holds as resistance.

• Strategy

• Look for bullish reversals near 3920 support

• Wait for bigger pullback to the 61.8% Fib / demand zone under 3800



• Germany DAX (D40/EUR)Setup

Breakdown from horizontal range

• Lowest weekly close since June

• Breakdown below ‘green’ weekly trendline

• RSI back at 35-40 support

• Commentary

The DAX is sitting right on the support level of its long term range. The index could rally back into its range, offering reversal setups to go long, or it could continue to breakdown

• Strategy

• Option 2: Sell rebound towards 48,000 supply zone

• Option 1: Wait for bearish setup after the break of uptrend line



But - as always - thats just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think？