FPG USDJPY Market Report November 20, 2025

USDJPY is currently around 157.08, positioned at the peak of a strong bullish rally after successfully climbing through key Fibonacci zones. On the H4 chart, price is approaching a critical junction as it tests Fibonacci 100 at 157.17, which also aligns with the upper boundary of the current expansion channel. This level represents a potential turning point where the pair could either extend its bullish momentum toward fresh highs or face a corrective pullback after an extended upward run.

The recent upward rally has been supported by clean higher-high and higher-low formations, with dynamic support from the Bollinger mid-band and Parabolic SAR consistently plotting below the candles. The Fibonacci structure highlights key levels: 61.8 aligns with previous resistance-turned-support at 155.02, showing the markets strong respect for this level. Below it, Fibonacci 23.6 near 152.83 aligns with a deeper support zone, marking a potential retracement floor if correction deepens.

Momentum indicators are showing early signs of overextension. The Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) is deep in overbought territory, hovering near extreme levels, suggesting potential exhaustion. Meanwhile, MACD shows steady histogram expansion, confirming that buying pressure remains active, though a slowdown in momentum could trigger a temporary correction phase. This setup places USDJPY at a decisive point, likely to either push through 157.17 for continuation or pause for correction.

Market Observation & Strategy Advice

1. Current Position: USDJPY trades around 157.08, testing the peak of a bullish rally. The price is pressing against a key Fibonacci 100 projection, signaling a crucial decision point between continuation and correction.

2. Resistance Zone: Key resistance stands at 157.17 (Fibonacci 100 level). A successful breakout above this zone could pave the way toward 158.50 and potentially 160.00 if bullish momentum is sustained.

3. Support Zone: Immediate support is found at 155.02 (Fibonacci 61.8 and previous resistance-turned-support), followed by a deeper support zone near 152.83 (Fibonacci 23.6). Stability above these levels maintains bullish structure.

4. Indicators: Stochastic Oscillator indicates overbought conditions suggesting potential corrective movement, while MACD remains bullish with widening histogram bars, reflecting sustained upward momentum. Bollinger Bands are expanding, indicating heightened volatility and possible trend continuation.

5. Trading Strategy Suggestions:

• Bullish Breakout Play: Buy stop above 157.20 with targets at 158.50 and 160.00, and stop-loss below 156.50.

• Pullback Entry Setup: Buy limit around 155.10–155.30 (Fibonacci 61.8 support), targeting 156.80 and 157.20, with stop-loss below 154.50.

• Correction Scenario: If price rejects 157.17 and breaks below 155.00, consider short positions toward 153.50–152.80 (Fibonacci 23.6 zone).

Market Performance:

Forex Last Price % Change

EUR/USD 1.1530 −0.06%

GBP/USD 1.3053 −0.03%

Today's Key Economic Calendar:

US: Fed Williams Speech

US: FOMC Minutes

CN: Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y

JP: BoJ Koeda Speech

US: Non Farm Payrolls

US: Unemployment Rate

US: Fed Hammack Speech

US: Existing Home Sales

Risk Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investments involve risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult your financial advisor for personalized investment strategies.