Nvidia Earnings This Week, Bitcoin < 100K - Week 46| Technical Analysis by Jasper Lawler

Week Ahead

📅 17–23 November, 2025

Global markets open the week centred on Nvidias earnings, now the key driver of equity sentiment after a sharp tech pullback. Inflation remains in focus with CPI releases from the UK, Japan and Canada, while Fed minutes arrive as markets adjust to returning US data following the shutdown.

Week in Review📰 News

US government reopens:

Shutdown ends after 43 days, restoring federal operations and clearing the way for updated data releases.

Central-bank divergence:

FOMC speakers remain split on a December cut. In the UK, weaker data (unemployment at 5%, soft GDP, sharp industrial output drop) shifts expectations toward a BOE cut.

UK slowdown:

GDP up 0.1% vs 0.3% expected; industrial production –2.0%, signalling softer momentum ahead of the Autumn Budget.

💹 Price Action

Equities:

Tech extended losses; broader indices erased early gains.

Commodities:

Gold reversed late week. Oil steady.

FX:

CHF gained on haven flows. JPY weakened. GBP held near recent lows.

Crypto:

Bitcoin slipped below $100k, adding pressure across the sector.

Big Themes

Tech uncertainty:

Burry‘s criticism of AI/cloud accounting adds pressure ahead of Nvidia’s results. Questions over circular AI capex and GPU lifespan assumptions dominate sentiment.

Equities stretched:

US tech remains overbought after a long rally. Nvidias update could stabilise or deepen the correction.

US dollar softens:

Dollar eased as markets brace for the return of delayed US data. Incoming releases will determine whether the move continues or reverses.

Gold at a turning point:

After rallying on shutdown uncertainty, gold has pulled back. A short-term top is possible unless prices reclaim the $4,100–$4,150 area. Fed minutes and data resumption are the main catalysts.

Earnings Calendar

Nvidia (Q3 FY26) – Wednesday, 19 Nov — Main Event

Guides for ~$54bn revenue and a 1ppt margin lift. Markets will focus on data-centre growth, Rubin architecture timing and the $100bn OpenAI partnership. Questions over circular cashflows and GPU-lifespan assumptions keep scrutiny high. Nvidias tone could determine equity direction into month-end.

Walmart (Q3 FY26) – Thursday, 20 Nov

Q2 EPS slightly missed at $0.68; revenue rose 4.8%. E-commerce up 26%. FY guidance was raised, though Q3 could show temporary spending pressure from reduced SNAP benefits during the shutdown.

Economic Calendar

UK CPI (October) – Wednesday, 19 Nov

Headline seen easing from 3.8% to 3.7%; core at 3.4%. With two CPI prints before the December MPC, the pace of cooling will shape BOE cut expectations.

Fed Minutes – Wednesday, 19 Nov

The Fed cut 25bp to 4% with a split vote. Minutes should clarify how policymakers interpreted the shutdown blackout and the CPI re-acceleration to 3%.

UK Retail Sales (October) – Friday, 21 Nov

Expected –0.2% after strong summer readings as consumers delay spending ahead of the Budget.

Japan CPI (October) – Friday, 21 Nov

Expected 3.1% from 2.9%. Despite this, BOJ tone is dovish; odds of a December hike remain low. Weak GDP could support USDJPY.

Canada CPI (October) – Monday, 17 Nov

Seen at 2.4% with trimmed mean at 3.1%. Softer figures could reinforce BOCs pause, supporting USDCAD if 1.4000 holds.

Eurozone Flash PMIs (November) – Friday, 21 Nov

Manufacturing expected at 50.9; services at 52.3. Key EURUSD levels: 1.1700 resistance, 1.1600 support.

Other releases:

• US existing home sales – Thursday

• Japan trade balance – Wednesday

• China loan prime rate – Thursday

• Canada retail sales – Friday

Technical Analysis

We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and signals.

GBP/USDSetup

Bearish - Market top

• Double top

• Failed breakdown at 1.3150 suggests a rebound

Commentary

Price remains rangebound, with no firm break below 1.3150. Bias stays bearish, looking for sellers to re-enter on bounces. A push back above ~1.34 would signal the downtrend is failing.

Strategy

• Sell rebound towards supply zone starting at 1.33

• Sell on break back under 1.3150 support



• Bitcoin (BTC/USD)Setup

Bearish - Market top

• Triple top pattern completed - neckline at $100,900

• Closed week under $100k psychological level

• Commentary

While arguably, prices are approaching ‘bargain’ levels again in Bitcoin - we are following the trend lower. This is either the start of a new downtrend- or price could simply rebound back into the prior range.

• Strategy

• Look for bearish signals at $100,900 support-turned-resistance

• Alternatively, look for the supply zone from $105-108K for bearish signals



• Dow Jones (U30/USD)Setup

Uptrend with bearish reversal signal

• Bearish weekly pin bar (or ‘shooting star’)

• Price still trading above trendline and 50 day SMA

• Commentary

Looking for a possible counter-trend trade in line with the weekly bearish candle pattern.

• Strategy

• Option 2: Sell rebound towards 48,000 supply zone

• Option 1: Wait for bearish setup after the break of uptrend line



But - as always - thats just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think？