DBG Markets: Market Report for Nov 12, 2025

Markets Rebound on Shutdown Optimism, but Dollar & Tech Face Key Tests

Global risk assets saw a dramatic reversal, driven by highly positive news that the U.S. government shutdown crisis is nearing a formal end. Risk appetite surged to multi-week highs. U.S. indices extended gains for a second consecutive day, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both rising over 1.5%, signaling a strong recovery in confidence for momentum stocks.

Macro Event: U.S. Shutdown Crisis Nearing End

The U.S. shutdown is approaching resolution, and optimism has triggered another wave of market rally this Tuesday. The U.S. Senate has passed a temporary funding bill, while the House of Representatives is scheduled to vote on Wednesday (U.S. Eastern Time). This could mark the official end of the record 42-day federal government shutdown.

Next Key Challenges / Market Focus

· Data Release Challenge: The central focus now shifts to the release schedule of delayed Nonfarm Payrolls and CPI inflation data. The market is highly sensitive to whether these data points will support or challenge the current expectation for a December rate cut.

· Tech Sector Shock: SoftBank announced it is selling its stake in Nvidia, citing an "asset monetization" strategy. Despite the companys explanation, markets interpreted this as a potential warning signal for overvalued AI hardware stocks — possibly triggering a capital rotation from high-valuation growth sectors to value plays.

U.S. Dollar Outlook: Consolidation Before Major Data

The U.S. Dollar Index remains in a phase of structural consolidation. Despite pressure from “risk-on” sentiment, its ability to hold firm near the 99.00 handle underscores that the Dollar‘s strength — rooted in the Fed’s relatively hawkish stance — still remains.

USD Index, H2 Chart

Technically, the Dollar faces a tough range between 99.00 and 100.00, with 100.00 acting as a major psychological resistance, while 99.00 has proven to be a strong support level. The Dollar may remain consolidation within the key zones on current market landscape.

Risk Outlook: In the near term, consolidation is likely as markets await clearer direction from the delayed NFP and CPI data. However, if the House vote unexpectedly fails to pass the funding bill, renewed political uncertainty could quickly push the Dollar higher again on safe-haven demand and renewed policy uncertainty around the Fed.

NASDAQ 100 Outlook: Technical Risk vs. AI Momentum

The NASDAQ 100‘s sharp rebound has been driven by renewed optimism, but underlying risks remain evident — particularly after SoftBank’s announcement of selling its entire stake in Nvidia, reigniting concerns over AI and tech-sector overvaluation.

Earlier, U.S. tech stocks faced a notable pullback amid growing worries that the AI boom had stretched valuations too far. The SoftBank news added further pressure, as investors viewed the move as a potential signal of profit-taking within the AI cycle.

If broader sentiment interprets this as a sign of an AI correction phase, the NASDAQ could face a sharp reversal or enter a period of consolidation.

UT100 (Nasdaq100), Daily Chart

Despite these concerns, the indexs broader bullish structure remains intact. Unless prices break convincingly below key technical support, the medium-term uptrend continues to hold.

UT100, 4-H Chart

Technically, the critical setup lies within the long-term ascending channel that began from the May 2025 rally, with the 25,000 level serving as a pivotal support that has repeatedly reinforced rebounds.

Risk Outlook: Failure to maintain the post-shutdown gains could confirm that SoftBanks sale has triggered a deeper shift in investor sentiment toward high-growth tech valuations — potentially setting the stage for a broader corrective phase.

Bottom Line: Markets Ride Optimism, but Fragile Confidence Ahead

Global markets are staging a powerful rebound as the U.S. government shutdown nears resolution — restoring risk appetite and lifting equities to multi-week highs. Yet, beneath the optimism, uncertainty lingers. The true test will come once delayed economic data such as NFP and CPI return, providing clarity on the Feds December rate path.

The U.S. Dollar remains resilient in consolidation, holding its structure despite “risk-on” flows, while the NASDAQ 100‘s momentum faces a reality check amid renewed valuation fears following SoftBank’s Nvidia exit.

In short, the post-shutdown rally is built on hope, not confirmation. Until data validates the growth narrative, markets remain vulnerable to sharp shifts in sentiment — making the coming data cycle pivotal for setting direction across equities, the Dollar, and broader risk assets.