DBG Markets: Market Report for Nov 10, 2025

Markets Brace for Uncertainty: Dollar, Gold, and Yen in Focus

Market Recap: Equities Retreat, Dollar Pullback Confirmed

Global equities ended the trading week on a highly volatile note. After a sharp midday sell-off on Friday, the Dow and S&P 500 managed to narrow their losses, finishing with slight gains, while the Nasdaq closed marginally lower.

Key Macro Themes for the Week Ahead

1. U.S. Shutdown & Data Void Remain Market Wildcards

The ongoing U.S. government shutdown continues to generate systemic uncertainty, creating challenges for market visibility and economic forecasting.

· Data Blackout: The Consumer Price Index (CPI), originally scheduled for release this week, may now be delayed. With BLS data collection and analysis halted, markets are increasingly reliant on partial private-sector data.

· Policy Challenges: This prolonged data gap leaves the Federal Reserve navigating in near-complete uncertainty. Market movements remain highly sensitive to Fed commentary, rumors, and headlines. Previously, two consecutive monthly employment reports were delayed, and the continued absence of official inflation and employment data is expected to prolong and complicate internal Fed debates over a potential December rate cut.

2. Dollar Pullback and Gold Regain Momentum

Another focus this week is the direction of the U.S. Dollar and gold. The Dollar Index retreated from the 100.00 level on Friday, reversing part of its post-FOMC surge, marking a critical technical and sentiment shift.

· U.S. Dollar Index: The dollar is undergoing a policy-driven correction. If the DXY fails to decisively reclaim momentum above 100.00, weaker U.S. economic data (ISM, JOLTS) may outweigh the Feds cautious rhetoric, increasing the likelihood of a deeper correction. Technically, support in the 99.00–99.25 zone should cap near-term downside, but uncertainty remains dependent on the U.S. shutdown and delayed data.

· Gold (XAU/USD): Golds successful reclaim of the $4,000/oz level represents a major psychological victory for bulls. The combination of a weaker dollar and strong underlying safe-haven demand provides solid support. On Friday, gold reached two-week highs after breaking above the $4,030 resistance zone. In the week ahead, holding the $4,000–$4,030 range will be key for sustaining bullish momentum and opening the path to further upside.

USD Index, H4 Chart

From a technical perspective, the U.S. Dollar is undergoing a pullback after testing the 100.00 resistance level, confirming that this zone remains a key hurdle. Despite this, the broader outlook remains constructive as the dollar continues to hold above the 99.00–99.25 support range.

This week, the dollars direction is likely to be influenced by developments in the U.S. government shutdown and the release of key economic data.

While uncertainty persists due to the ongoing data blackout, technically, as long as the 99.00–99.25 support holds, further downside is likely to remain limited in the near term.

XAU/USD, H2 Chart

Gold has recently found solid support around the $4,000 level. During the Asian session, XAU/USD marked a two-week high after breaking above the key $4,030 resistance.

The focus this week will be on whether gold can hold above the $4,000–$4,030 zone, which has now shifted from resistance to support. If this level is maintained, the path for further upside remains likely.

3. BoJ: Summary of Opinions Pressure Yen Gains

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) today released the Summary of Opinions from its October monetary policy meeting, confirming significant internal divergence and deepening the caution regarding the timing of future rate hikes.

This pressure the yen gains that obtained last week.

· Dovish Stance Prevails: The summary re-confirms the divergence within the BoJ. The prevailing dovish stance continues to hold sway, with multiple committee members stressing that the BoJ “should continue to be patient and assess the sustainability of wage growth,” signaling no rush for a rate hike in December or January. This maintains persistent pressure on the Japanese Yen in the medium term.

· Hawkish Pushback: Conversely, strong voices (referring to the two members who voted against maintaining the current rate) argued that, given inflation is stable at the target, the BoJ “should immediately consider raising rates to avoid having to tighten more aggressively in the future.”

Despite the internal debate, the Summary reinforces the status quo: the BoJ remains the global outlier. This lack of immediate consensus for tightening means the policy divergence with the U.S. Fed (which cut rates) will continue to fuel structural weakness in the JPY.

USDJPY, H4 Chart

USD/JPY remains supported near 153.00, keeping the pair range-bound between 153.00 and 154.40. A decisive break above or below this range will likely dictate the next directional move, particularly for the yen.