Gold’s Steep Pullback. FOMC This Week & Week Ahead - Week 43| Technical Analysis by Jasper Lawler

Week Ahead

📅 October 28 – November 3, 2025

Markets brace for a pivotal week as the Fed, ECB, BOJ, and BOC meet alongside big tech earnings, heightening volatility amid a US data blackout from the ongoing shutdown.

Gold saw its steepest drop in 12 years on easing trade tensions, while oil rebounded on US–Russia strains and speculation of curbed Russian crude imports. The yen weakened on Japans dovish tilt, and the Nasdaq hit a new record high.

Week in Review

The US government shutdown continues to delay key data like CPI and GDP, forcing the Fed to rely on secondary indicators (ADP, ISM) as it moves ahead with policy easing this week.

UK inflation held at 3.8%, with core CPI down to 3.5%, a seven-month low. Retail sales rose 0.5%, keeping a 50-50 chance of a BOE rate cut before year-end.

Japans inflation stayed at 2.9% as new PM Sanae Takaishi reinforced a dovish fiscal outlook.

The US and India are nearing a tariff-reduction deal, while new US sanctions on Russian oil firms further strained US–Russia ties.

Week Ahead

🇺🇸 FOMC Rate Meeting – Oct 29

Despite missing jobs and inflation data, markets widely expect a 25 bps rate cut. Growth remains solid near 4% annualized, while inflation stays sticky (core CPI 3.1%, headline 2.9%). Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled gradual easing to address job softness but ruled out aggressive cuts, while newcomer Stephen Miran echoed President Trumps rhetoric.

Market View: Cut odds > 97%; USD may stay firm if the Fed sounds cautious.

Gold support $3950, resistance $4190–$4300.

🇪🇺 ECB Rate Meeting – Oct 30

No policy change expected as inflation edges higher (headline 2.2%, core 2.4%). Policymakers Wunsch, Scicluna, and Villeroy de Galhau have ruled out further cuts. The euros 10%

YTD rally vs USD helps contain imported inflation.

Market View: Rates steady; guidance may tilt dovish if Eurozone CPI softens Friday. EUR/USD range 1.1545–1.1700.

🇨🇦 BOC Rate Decision – Oct 30

Markets expect a 25 bps cut, though firmer inflation may trigger a pause. A surprise hold could lift the CAD, pushing USDCAD below 1.3925 (resistance 1.4100).

🇯🇵 BOJ Meeting – Oct 30

No policy shift expected, though PM Takaishis fiscal plans could shape tone. With USDJPY near multi-decade highs, the stance may test 154.00 resistance or prompt a pullback to 152.00–151.50.

Corporate Earnings

HSBC (Q3 2025) – Focus on credit losses after $2.1 bn impairment (Q2); H1 profits down 30% to $12.44 bn, NIM 1.57%. Buybacks paused for Hang Seng acquisition; watch ECL and HK property exposure.

Microsoft (Q1 FY26) – Revenue $76.4 bn (+18%), net income $27.2 bn (+24%); Azure +39%. Spending $30 bn this quarter on AI capacity (~$120 bn annualized).

Meta (Q3 2025) – Q2 revenue $47.5 bn (+22%), net income $18.3 bn (+36%); Capex guidance $66–72 bn. Q3 revenue expected $47.5–50.5 bn, focus on AI monetization.

Alphabet (Q3 2025) – Q2 revenue $96.4 bn, net income $28.2 bn; Cloud +30%+, YouTube $9.8 bn. Capex $85 bn, may break $100 bn quarterly revenue for first time.

Apple (Q4 2025) – Revenue $94 bn, net income $23.4 bn; strong iPhone/Mac, weaker iPad/wearables. Gross margin 46–47%, with $1.1 bn tariff hit; boost expected from $100 bn US investment plan.

Amazon (Q3 2025) – Q2 sales $167.7 bn, profits $18.2 bn; AWS +17.5% but margins tighten. Q3 guidance $174–179.5 bn, operating income $15–20.5 bn; AWS outage weighed on shares.

Economic Data Highlights

Mon 28: German Ifo Business Climate

Tue 29: US Consumer Confidence, UK Mortgage Data

Wed 30: FOMC Decision, Australian CPI, Japanese Consumer Confidence

Thu 31: ECB & BOJ Meetings, Eurozone Industrial Sentiment

Fri 1: Eurozone CPI (flash), China PMI, Japanese Jobs Data

Technical Analysis

We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and signals.

Silver (XAG/USD)Setup

• Bull market - steep pullback

Commentary

It‘s possible this is the top given the jump in downside volatility - i.e. long down candles. But there isn’t enough evidence yet and the trend is still up.

Strategy

Buy the dip at

• Demand zone 46-47.50

• Wait for steeper drop to demand zone at 44 (near 50-day MA)



Nasdaq 100

Setup: Bull market breakout to record highs, closing the week above 25,000 after a strong inside-week surge.

Commentary: Staying bullish on US indices, but with a mature trend, prefer buying pullbacks over breakouts.

Strategy: Buy near 25,200 or at the rising trendline. A drop below 25,000 would warn of a possible trend break.



EUR/JPY

Setup: Bull market breakout with the highest weekly close in years.

Commentary: Price hit the 155 double-bottom target and quickly rebounded, showing strong bullish momentum.

• Strategy: Buy dips near 176, fade highs above 178.



But - as always - thats just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think？