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Here are the five key takeaways from Friday's consumer price index report

WikiFX
| 2025-10-24 23:52

Abstract:The BLS on Friday released its much-anticipated inflation report, delayed a week and a half because of the government shutdown.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday released its much-anticipated consumer price index report, delayed a week and a half because of the government shutdown.

Here are the five most important takeaways:

  1. While inflation is still running well ahead of the Federal Reserve's 2% goal, it is showing no signs of runaway and in fact is easing at least a bit in some key areas. The headline gain of 0.3% monthly and 3% annually both were slightly below consensus forecasts. Same for ex-food and energy core, which ran at 0.2% and 3% respectively.
  2. Markets continued to price in a near-certainty for a Fed rate cut next week, and upped the odds for another in December, with just a 4% probability the central bank won't ultimately ease two more times before the end of the year, according to the CME Group's FedWatch.
  3. Aside from the headline numbers, the biggest watch point for markets was tariff and immigration impacts, which showed up ... a little. Apparel prices rose 0.7% and sporting goods costs jumped 1%. But smartphone prices actually declined 2.2% and are down 14.9% year over year. Gardening and lawn care services, an immigration-related category, posted a 13.9% annual increase.
  4. Shelter costs are another key category, as they make up one-third of the weighting in the index. There was some relief on that front, with the index up just 0.2% monthly and holding at 3.6% annually. Owners equivalent rent, a critical component of shelter costs that asks homeowners what they could fetch in rent, rose just 0.1%, the smallest such move for the measure since November 2020.
  5. With government data collection and reports under suspension because of the shutdown, this BLS only compiled this report because of its role as a benchmark for Social Security cost of living adjustments. This, then, likely will be the last official data report released until the impasse is resolved.

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