Apple Rallies 4% to Lead Market Recovery as U.S.–China Relations Center on APEC Meeting

Apple shares surged as much as 4.8% intraday on Tuesday before closing up 3.94%, fueling a rebound across risk assets. The three major U.S. stock indexes regained previous highs, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hit a new short-term peak. The explosive momentum driven by AI continues to support chip-equipment makers, but we believe the near-term rally‘s sustainability depends on two key uncertainties — the upcoming U.S.–China leaders’ meeting at the end of the month and the Supreme Court‘s early-November ruling on whether Trump’s tariffs were unconstitutional.

In a Fox News interview, former President Trump acknowledged that imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese imports is “unsustainable,” though it could be maintained in the short term. He said the U.S. is prepared to impose tariffs as high as 155–157% on Chinese goods in response to Beijings tighter export controls on rare earths. However, Trump also expressed optimism that talks with China would go “very smoothly,” emphasizing the need for a “fair agreement.”

Separately, Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed an $8.5 billion cooperation deal on critical minerals and rare earth supply chains. Trump noted that within a year, the U.S. would have sufficient access to key materials — a move clearly aimed at reducing dependence on Chinas rare earth exports.

We expect that the U.S.–China meeting during APEC will help ease current tensions, with discussions likely centered on soybean exports, fentanyl control, and rare earth trade — all topics with substantial room for negotiation. Thus, a prolonged stalemate is unlikely.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court is set to decide in early November whether Trumps tariffs violated U.S. law. Should the court rule them unconstitutional, the short-term reaction would likely be bullish for risk assets but bearish for safe-haven metals as risk sentiment improves.

A ruling striking down the tariffs would directly benefit U.S. retailers — particularly those with thinner profit margins on imported goods. Tariff removal could ease pricing pressures at the consumer level, though near-term profit adjustments are likely as companies absorb higher-cost inventories. However, the persistent weakness in end-user demand remains underpriced, and we maintain concern that U.S. equity valuations may be overstretched.

This years markets have displayed signs of logical decoupling — the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields diverging, risk assets rising alongside gold, and now the possibility of a government shutdown. With key macroeconomic data delayed, investors should reassess their overall exposure and risk appetite.

In our view, the current economic structure suggests the early stage of a new expansion cycle is underway.

Gold Technical Analysis

Gold prices have reversed higher, breaking through three Fibonacci resistance levels and retesting the previous high near $4,379. Earlier short positions likely hit stop-loss levels, prompting investors to step aside and look for fresh shorting opportunities as price momentum cools.

We believe the current uptrend has extended too far technically and is likely to consolidate or retrace to narrow its deviation from moving averages. Day traders should consider short positions near the $4,379 resistance zone, with stop-loss orders in place if new highs are recorded. The intraday outlook leans toward a sideways consolidation, with immediate support seen at $4,214 — a break below this level could signal a deeper retracement.

Support: 4,214

Resistance: 4,379

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