Yen breakout + Tesla earnings - Week 41| Technical Analysis by Jasper Lawler

Week Ahead20 - 26 October 2025

Markets face a packed week ahead after a cautious, politically charged few days dominated by the ongoing US government shutdown and renewed trade tensions. With delayed US data, mixed UK figures, and fresh signs of slowing Chinese growth, investors now turn to a major run of CPI reports, flash PMIs, and Q3 corporate earnings for direction.

Week in Review

News

Market sentiment remained fragile as the US government shutdown continued into another week, delaying key data including September CPI. Despite tentative progress in Congress, no resolution was reached. President Trump downplayed threats of 100% China tariffs but reignited tension by introducing new sanctions even as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent held talks in Beijing.

In the UK, August GDP rose modestly by 0.1%, offset by a downward revision to July, while unemployment ticked up to 4.8%. Political unease grew after reports that Chancellor Rachel Reeves was considering tax hikes and spending cuts ahead of the 2026 Budget.

Chinas trade data surprised with a sharp rise in imports, narrowing the surplus, while in Europe, French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu narrowly survived a no-confidence vote after being reappointed. Globally, geopolitics stayed in focus as Trump met both Zelenskyy and Putin to discuss renewed Ukraine peace efforts.

Price Action

Safe-haven demand drove gold to its ninth consecutive weekly gain — the strongest since 2020 — while the Swiss franc outperformed all majors. Oil prices retreated amid progress in Gaza ceasefire talks and signs of oversupply flagged by the IEA. Equity markets softened, led by US regional banks and Chinese-exposed tech stocks, as risk appetite faded into Fridays close.

Week AheadMarket Themes to Watch

Inflation in Focus: The biggest theme this week is CPI — with the US, UK, Canada, and Japan all releasing inflation data that could steer central bank expectations ahead of year-end.

Shutdown Impact: Traders await clarity on whether the US government will reopen in time for next weeks Fed meeting.

Chinese Growth Risk: Q3 GDP is expected to slow to 4.9%, reinforcing calls for Beijing to expand fiscal support.

Corporate Announcements & Earnings Calendar

Earnings season accelerates with major US and UK corporates reporting:

• 21 Oct, Tue: Netflix (Q3 2025)

• 22 Oct, Wed: Tesla (Q3 2025); Barclays (Q3 2025)

• 23 Oct, Thu: Lloyds Banking Group (Q3 2025)

• 24 Oct, Fri: NatWest Group (Q3 2025)

Strong results from US tech or UK banks could help steady sentiment after last weeks weakness.

Economic Calendar

• 21 Oct, Mon: UK Public Sector Borrowing (Sep)

• 22 Oct, Tue: Canada CPI (Sep)

• 23 Oct, Wed: UK CPI (Sep), China GDP (Q3)

• 24 Oct, Thu: US CPI (Sep – delayed release), US Retail Sales

• 25 Oct, Fri: Flash PMIs (EU, UK, US), UK Retail Sales

Markets are watching whether sticky inflation and soft growth reinforce the “higher for longer” narrative — or if data surprises revive hopes for rate cuts into year-end.

Technical Analysis

We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and signals.

GBP/USDSetup

Rangebound market - Neutral bias

• Range from 1.3150-1.3750

• Above 50 week SMA but RSI bearish divergence

Strategy

• Buy in demand ones near bottom of range OR

• Sell supply zones near top of range

NOTE: Not a trending market- buying dips or breakouts will have lower probability of success



USD/JPY

• Setup

Bullish range breakout.

• Price has closed above key 150 resistance for 2 weeks

• RSI trending higher

• Strategy

• Buy dips back toward resistance-turned-support at 150

• Buy breakout above 152-153 resistance / continuation of triangle breakout

NOTE: Watch out for supply zones working - could be sign of false breakout



• USD/CHFSetup

Rangebound market - Possible bottom

• Tight price range between 0.7900 and 0.8100

• Prior trend is bearish, well below 50 week SMA

• Signal

• Buy demand zones near bottom of range

• Sell demand zones near top of range

• Look for breakout - above 0.81 or below 0.79



But - as always - thats just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think？