DBG Markets: Market Report for Oct 14, 2025

Gold Soars to Record $4,000; Risk Currencies Under Pressure

Gold Hit $4,000 For the First Time

Gold surged to new all-time highs, briefly hitting the $4,000 mark for the first time, fueled by strong safe-haven demand amid persistent global uncertainty. The breakout has captured broad market attention, with bullish sentiment remaining elevated as investors seek refuge from political and macroeconomic volatility.

The rally has been underpinned by growing expectations of more dovish central banks and lower bond yields, which enhance gold‘s appeal. Additionally, continued uncertainty surrounding the U.S. government shutdown, European political tensions, and Japan’s leadership transition have further amplified safe-haven inflows.

In overall, market sentiment remains firmly biased toward gold, driven by a combination of frenzied buying and structural risk aversion.

XAU/USD, M30 Chart

Technically, golds move above $4,000 has turned this level into a pivotal support zone. After a brief pullback, prices have continued to push higher, confirming bullish momentum.

If strength persists, the next upside targets stand around $4,100–$4,150. However, traders should be cautious of potential reversal signals or exhaustion, given the pace of the recent climb.

On the downside, a drop below $4,000 or $3,988 could trigger a deeper pullback, but until such a move materializes, the broader bias remains bullish.

Kiwi Under Pressure: Dovish RBNZ Sparks Selloff

The New Zealand dollar has come under renewed pressure after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a larger-than-expected 50-basis-point rate cut, signaling the economy requires additional stimulus.

In its statement, the Monetary Policy Committee noted that growth remains weak, spare capacity persists across key sectors, and inflation pressures are easing toward the midpoint of its target range. The RBNZ also highlighted elevated global and trade uncertainties, adding that monetary conditions remain restrictive despite previous cuts.

The unexpectedly dovish tone caught markets off-guard, prompting a sharp repricing of the interest-rate outlook. Investors now anticipate a more aggressive easing path ahead, which has pushed the New Zealand dollar lower against most major peers.

NZD/USD, H4 Chart

Technically, NZD/USD has extended its decline and is now testing levels not seen in six months following the RBNZs move. The pair is hovering near the key demand zone around 0.5755 — a level that will be critical for determining whether the downtrend deepens. A decisive break below this zone could trigger a renewed wave of selling and accelerate bearish momentum.

For now, downside risks remain dominant, reinforced by the contrast between the RBNZs dovish stance and the relative resilience of the U.S. dollar.

AUD/USD: Tracking Kiwi Weakness, Pressure Builds

The Australian dollar has softened alongside its New Zealand counterpart, with sentiment weighed down by the RBNZs surprise 50-basis-point rate cut and lingering uncertainty around global growth. The dovish move by the RBNZ sparked renewed risk aversion in the region, dragging the Aussie lower as investors reassessed broader policy expectations for the Antipodean currencies.

While Australias fundamentals remain relatively more resilient, softer commodity demand and a cautious market tone continue to limit upside potential for the AUD. The pair has been struggling to regain momentum amid a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker regional sentiment.

AUD/USD, H4 Chart

Technically, AUD/USD remains capped below the 0.6600 resistance zone, with price action confined within a near-term consolidation range. A sustained break below 0.6550 could expose deeper downside toward 0.6500, while holding above this area may allow the pair to stabilize.

For now, downside bias persists, but any signs of stabilization in Chinas growth outlook or a weaker U.S. dollar could offer temporary relief to the Aussie.

Bottom Line

Gold‘s historic break above $4,000 underscores the dominance of safe-haven demand in a market clouded by policy uncertainty and slowing global growth. Meanwhile, risk currencies remain pressured — the RBNZ’s surprise 50 bp cut has intensified regional weakness, dragging both the Kiwi and Aussie lower.

Looking ahead, volatility is likely to stay elevated as investors weigh dovish central bank expectations against lingering geopolitical and fiscal risks. The near-term tone favors golds strength, while risk-related currencies like NZD and AUD may remain on the defensive unless sentiment or U.S. dollar dynamics shift.