Week 41 | Technical Analysis by Jasper Lawler

Week Ahead📅 14 - 20 October 2025

Week in Review📰 News

Tariff shock rocks Wall Street:

A quiet Friday turned chaotic after President Trump announced 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports from 1 November. The surprise move blindsided markets and revived memories of April‘s ’tariff tantrum'.

US indices slump:

The S&P 500 fell 2.7%, the Dow lost 879 points, and the Nasdaq tumbled 3.6% — the worst session since April — erasing all of Octobers gains.

Tech bears the brunt:

Semiconductor stocks plunged — AMD (-7.7%), Qualcomm (-7.3%), NVIDIA (-4.9%) — amid renewed supply-chain fears and a new Beijing antitrust probe.

Shutdown and policy backdrop:

The US government shutdown entered its third week, stalling CPI and NFP data releases. Fed officials reiterated that inflation is contained, but fiscal gridlock clouds policy direction.

Global political noise:

French PM Sebastien Lecornu resigned 14 hours after unveiling his Cabinet, forcing Macron to rebuild before the Oct 13 budget deadline. The RBNZ‘s surprise 50 bps cut sent NZD to six-month lows, while Japan’s ruling party faced turmoil after Komeito withdrew coalition support.

💹 Price Action

US equities:

Tariffs dominated the week, triggering the sharpest one-day losses in months and reversing Septembers rebound.

Gold:

Rebounded Friday, extending its 8-week winning streak to fresh record highs near $4,100/oz.

Oil:

Closed the week sharply lower after breaking below key multi-month support.

FX:

USD strengthened on safe-haven flows, the yen weakened on political uncertainty, and NZD plunged after the rate cut.

Week Ahead💭 Market Themes to Watch

• Tariff Shock Fallout: The 100% tariff threat is now the single biggest risk to sentiment — Chinas response, if any, will dictate direction early in the week.

• Bank Earnings Tone: With markets rattled, tone from JPMorgan and Citi will be key in setting the mood for Q4.

• Data Delays: The US shutdown keeps inflation data uncertain — missing CPI would leave markets trading on expectations rather than facts.

• UK Stagnation Watch: Wages and GDP due this week will show whether Britain is slowing gently or stalling outright.

Corporate Announcements & Earnings Calendar

US Bank Earnings (Q3) – 14 Oct, Monday

Earnings season opens under heavy market pressure.

JPMorgan Chase – Focus on trading revenue and net interest income outlook after Q2 revenue of $45.7bn.

Citigroup – Updates on restructuring and equities performance after strong Q2 results.

Wells Fargo – Domestic exposure makes it sensitive to softer lending and narrowing margins.

A cautious tone from executives could deepen last weeks sell-off, while resilient numbers might help stabilise sentiment.

Economic Calendar

UK Wages & Unemployment (Aug) – 14 Oct, Monday

Wages expected to remain strong at 4.8%, keeping inflation pressures alive and making near-term BoE rate cuts unlikely.

UK GDP (Aug) – 16 Oct, Wednesday

Modest 0.1% rebound expected after Julys flat reading, with manufacturing still weak but services holding up.

Other key data this week

• Monday: China trade balance

• Tuesday: RBA minutes

• Wednesday: China CPI

• Thursday: US retail sales (if not delayed by the shutdown)

• Friday: Eurozone CPI and US housing starts

Technical Analysis

We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and signals.

GoldSetup

Bullish with high momentum: Possible correction coming

• A 5% pullback from current levels = $3850

• A 10% pullback = 3700

Signal

Early signs of correction from very overbought conditions

• Bearish engulfing candle around key $4K level

• Inside bar - look for false break higher or break lower under tweezer bottom

SPX (SPX/USD)

Setup

Bullish. Correction: Large bearish engulfing weekly candle

• Need the weekly low to hold for quick rebound

• A break of the weekly low could mean end of the uptrend

Signal

The 4 month old trendline has broken.

• Price has landed at a demand zone under 6500 (could rebound from here)

• Next supports found at matching lows of 6350 then 6200

BitcoinSetup

Bullish. Correction

• Bearish engulfing candle (but long lower wick)

• False breakout after record high over $125,000.

Signal

Price has rebounded from demand zone around 104,000

Looking for similar drop from supply zone near 120,000

But - as always - thats just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think？