WTO hikes global trade forecast for 2025 — but next year doesn't look so good

The World Trade Organization on Tuesday hiked its forecast for global trade growth in 2025 but warned that the outlook for 2026 had deteriorated.

In its latest “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics” report published on Tuesday, the WTO predicted that trade volume growth in 2025 would stand at 2.4%, up sharply from a previous estimate of 0.9% in the trade body's August report.

The outlook for next year is not so rosy, however, with the organization slashing its previous expectation of 1.8% trade volume growth next year to a lackluster 0.5%.

“Trade growth is expected to slow in 2026 as the global economy cools and as the full impact of higher tariffs is finally felt for a full year,” the WTO said.

Trade tariffs have become a dominant feature, and headwind, for global commerce since U.S. President Donald Trump shocked friends and foes alike with his widescale tariffs regime in April.

Countries scrambled to reach trade deals with the White House but even allies, such as the U.K., have seen a baseline 10% tariff remain on goods exported to the U.S.