U.S. Stocks, Gold, and European Equities Hit Record Highs, While Crude Drops to Five-Month Low

Market Overview

Despite the official U.S. government shutdown, market optimism remained intact. After a brief dip, Wall Street rebounded strongly, with both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones closing at record highs. Gains were broad-based: major pharmaceutical names Pfizer, Eli Lilly, and Merck all surged, while tech leaders such as Tesla (+3%), NVIDIA, and Intel extended their rallies.

European equities were equally robust, with the pan-European index rising for a fourth consecutive session, marking a fresh seven-month high.

Weak ADP employment data reinforced expectations for Fed rate cuts, sending U.S. Treasury yields to their lowest level in nearly two weeks.

In currency markets, the U.S. Dollar Index fell to a one-week low. Commodities, however, diverged sharply: safe-haven demand and rate-cut bets drove gold to a third straight intraday record high, while silver spiked nearly 3% to its highest level in 14 years. In contrast, crude oil extended its three-day decline to hit a five-month low, reflecting concerns tied to the broader economic outlook.

Hot Topics Ahead

• Private Payrolls Unexpectedly Contract

• ADP employment data showed an unexpected decline, partly due to annual benchmark adjustments. With the government shutdown potentially delaying Friday‘s Nonfarm Payrolls release, traders placed heightened importance on ADP figures. The weaker-than-expected reading fueled speculation of two additional Fed rate cuts by year-end.

• U.S. September ISM Manufacturing PMI Contracts for Seventh Straight Month

• The September ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.1, slightly above August’s 48.7 but still below the 50 threshold. New orders slipped back into contraction territory for the first time since January. Although factory employment improved modestly, it remains near historical lows. Meanwhile, the Prices Paid Index fell to 61.9, its lowest level of the year.

Key Events to Watch

• 19:30 GMT+8 – Challenger Job Cuts (Sep)

• 20:30 GMT+8 – Initial Jobless Claims (Week ending Sept. 27)

• 22:00 GMT+8 – U.S. Factory Orders (Aug, MoM)

• 22:30 GMT+8 – Speech by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan (2026 FOMC Voter)