FPG EURUSD Market Report September 26, 2025

EURUSD extended its downside momentum, breaking below the 1.1690 support and now trading around 1.1661. The pair remains pressured by dollar strength, with sellers dominating after recent failed attempts to sustain gains near 1.1800. Market sentiment continues to favor the bearish side as EURUSD approaches oversold conditions, though traders remain cautious about possible short-term corrective swings.

On the H4 chart, EURUSD is firmly trading below the middle Bollinger Band, with recent candles sliding along the lower band — signaling that bearish pressure is not only present but actively sustained by market momentum. The Parabolic SAR dots are positioned consistently above the candles, showing that the downtrend remains intact and sellers are still in control. The MACD stands at -0.0027 with its histogram deepening in negative territory, reflecting stronger bearish momentum and little evidence of a slowdown in downside pressure.

Meanwhile, RSI (14) prints at 26, firmly in oversold territory, which indicates that the pair could be due for a relief rebound if buyers step in. However, oversold conditions in a strong downtrend often fail to generate significant reversals, making caution necessary for countertrend positions. The overall structure highlights that while corrective bounces are possible, the dominant bias remains bearish as long as price stays below the former support-turned-resistance at 1.1690.

Market Observation & Strategy Advice

1. Current Position: EURUSD traded around 1.1661, extending losses after breaking below 1.1690 with clear dominance from sellers.

2. Resistance Zone: 1.1690 now acts as immediate resistance after the breakdown, while 1.1800 remains a stronger barrier for any bullish recovery attempt.

3. Support Zone: Nearest support lies at 1.1618, and a sustained break below this level could expose further downside risk toward 1.1580.

4. Indicators: Bollinger Bands show price hugging the lower band, confirming strong bearish pressure, while Parabolic SAR continues to plot above candles, maintaining a clear downtrend bias. RSI at 26 highlights oversold conditions, and MACD at -0.0027 further confirms negative momentum.

5. Trading Strategy Suggestions:

• Bearish Setup: Consider initiating short positions below 1.1690, with downside targets at 1.1618 for momentum-driven continuation.

• Bullish Setup: Watch closely for a corrective rebound if oversold RSI levels spark buying interest, with potential retest toward 1.1690 as resistance.

• Risk Management: Apply protective stop-losses above 1.1720 to limit exposure in case of sudden reversal, and manage position sizes carefully in oversold conditions.

Market Performance:

Forex Last Price % Change

GBP/USD 1.3345 +0.04%

USD/JPY 149.66 −0.09%

Today's Key Economic Calendar:

US: Core PCE Price Index MoM

US: Personal Income MoM

US: Personal Spending MoM

Risk Disclaimer This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investments involve risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult your financial advisor for personalized investment strategies.