DBG Markets: Market Report for Sep 23, 2025

Gold Momentum Stalls at Key Fibonacci Extension, Metal Correction Looms

Gold extended its rally in the Asian session today, hitting a fresh all-time high at $3,759 per ounce. The surge was supported by steady central bank purchases, persistent inflation concerns, and a softer U.S. dollar. Safe-haven demand remains robust, and with momentum traders driving the move higher, there have been few negative catalysts to slow golds advance.

Fed Signals & U.S. Data in Focus

Gold‘s rally has also been underpinned by expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Last week’s 25bps reduction, coupled with guidance for up to two more cuts before year-end, fuelled strong buying.

That said, market pricing is beginning to adjust as Fed officials push back against overly dovish bets. While the dollar has softened in recent sessions, policymakers comments highlight division within the Committee:

· St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic cautioned that inflation remains too high, arguing the case for additional easing is weak.

· Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stressed that policy should stay restrictive for now.

· In contrast, new Fed Governor Stephen Miran called for larger and faster cuts, underscoring the split in policy views.

The debate over the Fed‘s next steps could inject volatility into gold’s near-term path, with potential for a corrective pullback if the dollar regains ground.

Gold Pose for Corrective Risk

From a technical perspective, gold is now hovering near the $3,759 record high, this aligns with the Fibonacci extension 161.8 that we covered earlier, which suggests the rally over the current wave could face some challenge.

XAU/USD, 2-Hour Chart

A failure to sustain above this region could trigger profit-taking and a corrective pullback. Where this could lead to a near-term support over $3727-3715 area, and followed by the 3700 level.

A break below the 3700 would open the door for a deeper retracement or corrective wave toward below 3700.

On the upside, a decisive breakout above $3,770 could extend the rally toward $3,800, though momentum indicators suggest the market is edging into overbought territory.

XAU/USD, Daily Chart

Over the broader outlook, gold remains in a clear uptrend, though a near-term correction looks likely. The key zone to watch is the $3,700–$3,631 region, which is expected to act as a strong support area.

If this zone fails to hold, the pullback could deepen into a more significant corrective wave, potentially extending toward the $3,538–$3,485 area, corresponding to the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements.

Silver May Trail Gold Momentum

XAG/USD, 4-Hour Chart

Meanwhile, silver continues to trail gold, having surged to a fresh all-time high around $44. However, overbought risks are also building.

Technically, the immediate support lies near $43. A break below this level could open the way for a deeper pullback toward the $41.35–$40.50 zone.

Bottom Line

While gold and silver may continue to attract strong momentum, traders should be cautious about chasing the rally at elevated levels, as overbought risks remain high.

The broader outlook for both metals stays bullish, but in the near term, corrective pullbacks are possible. Much will depend on how upcoming U.S. data and fresh Fed commentary reshape market expectations.

Any shift toward stronger data or a less dovish Fed tone could trigger repricing, leaving gold particularly vulnerable to short-term sentiment swings.