DBG Markets: Market Report for Sep 22, 2025

Dollar Rebound Gold Holding High, Focus Shifts to Fed and Data

The U.S. Dollar rebounded strongly last week following the Federal Reserve meeting, starting the new week on firm footing. Although the Fed cut rates by 25bps in September and signaled the possibility of two more cuts this year, profit-taking and position adjustments helped the Dollar recover from its initial post-decision weakness.

Fed Speeches and U.S. Data in Focus

This week, attention turns to a heavy line-up of Fed speakers, with Chair Powells remarks on Wednesday as the key highlight.

Investors will be watching closely to see whether Fed officials:

· Indicate sufficient grounds for further cuts in upcoming meetings, or

· Prefer to wait for clearer evidence of inflation cooling.

A hawkish tone could extend the Dollars rebound, while dovish remarks may trigger renewed selling pressure.

Key U.S. Economic Data and Events

With the Fed emphasizing its data-dependent approach, upcoming releases will play a critical role in shaping policy expectations. This weeks key data include:

· Tuesday: S&P Global PMI – an early gauge of business activity and economic momentum;

· Thursday: Q2 GDP and weekly jobless claims – important tests of U.S. economic resilience;

· Friday: PCE Price Index – the Feds preferred inflation measure, likely to be scrutinized for policy implications.

Softer data would reinforce expectations for further easing and weigh on the Dollar, while stronger-than-expected readings could support the rebound, especially if Fed officials maintain a cautious stance.

Weekly Technical Outlook

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

USDindx, Daily Chart

The U.S. Dollar Index rebounded after last weeks Fed meeting but continues to trade within its key month-long range of 97.50–98.50. This zone remains the decisive technical barrier for the greenback:

· A sustained break above 98.50 could signal further upside momentum and extend the rebound.

· Failure to reclaim this zone would leave the broader downtrend intact, with risks of the Dollar turning lower again if economic data softens.

Short-term, the Dollar remains highly sensitive to incoming inflation data and Fed rhetoric. Volatility is likely to spike around the PCE release and Powells speech.

Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold extended gains to trade near its record high of $3,700 last week following the FOMC meeting, despite strength in the U.S. Dollar. The metal‘s bullish outlook remains intact as uncertainty around the Fed’s policy path and fragile risk sentiment continue to support safe-haven demand.

XAUUSD, H4 Chart

From a technical perspective, the $3,655–$3,630 zone serves as immediate support and is critical for maintaining the upside structure. A decisive break below this zone could trigger a deeper correction toward the $3,600 psychological level.

On the upside, a sustained move above $3,700 would likely pave the way for another bullish leg, potentially extending the uptrend. Until that, we could stay cautious on gold extended consolidation.

Outlook and Market Bias

This weeks market narrative will be driven by a mix of Fed communication and incoming U.S. data.

· Dollar bias: Tilted toward consolidation with potential upside if Fed remains cautious and data proves resilient.

· Gold bias: Likely to consolidate at elevated levels, but renewed upside possible if inflation eases further and the Dollar weakens.

Overall, volatility is expected to rise as traders weigh Fed signals against economic fundamentals.