Q2 GDP Revised Sharply Higher As Data Center Investments Sharply Boost Growth

While the number mostly reflects a reversal of the tariff frontrunning seen in Q1 (which dragged GDP sharply lower due to a surge in imports), moments ago we got the BEA's first revision of the Q2 GDP print which already came in red hot at 3.0% one month ago... and was just revised even redder and even hotter to 3.3%, beating estimates of a 3.1% print...

... and the highest quarterly print since Q3 2023.

According to the BEA, the 0.3% upward revision from the original 3.0% print reflecting upward revisions to investment and consumer spending that were partly offset by a downward revision to government spending and an upward revision to imports.

Taking a closer look at the composition, we find the following:

• Personal Consumption increased to 1.07% of the bottom line GDP print, up from 0.98% in the original print
• Fixed Investment jumped substantially from just 0.08% to 0.59% of the bottom-line print. We warned one month ago that either this number suggested that hyperscalers were lying or the number would be revised substantially higher. It was the latter.

One concerning item in the GDP print: fixed investment just 0.08%.

Really? No data centers at all? Are hyperscalers lying?

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 30, 2025

• The change in private inventories was modest, from -3.17% of the final GDP number, to -3.29% as companies depleted stocks purchased during the tariff build up period.
• Net trade (exports and imports) added 4.95% to GDP, virtually unchanged from the 4.99% original print, and a mirror image of the -4.62% hit to GDP from Q1.
• Finally, government flipped from adding a modest 0.08% to GDP, to subtracting 0.03%

More important than the GDP print even was the sharp upward revision in real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, which surged 1.9% in the second quarter - largely thanks to the huge upward revision in fixed investment - and up 0.7% from the previous estimate.

Finally, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.8% in the second quarter, revised down 0.1% from the previous estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.0%, revised down 0.1% from the previous estimate. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.5%, the same as previously estimated.

Overall, this was a very solid GDP print, with the upward revision not due to another boost in spending but rather the all important investment on data centers, which also helped almost double Real Final Sales from