FPG USOUSD Market Report August 15, 2025

The USOUSD daily chart shows that price is currently trading around 64.17, after recently rebounding from the 62.08 support level. This support aligns with a prior price cluster from early April 2025, indicating its significance. The broader trend has been bearish since mid-June, with price making lower highs and lower lows, and currently staying below the midline of the Bollinger Bands. The immediate upside challenge is the mid-band resistance near 65.40, followed by the more substantial resistance at 71.16.

Momentum indicators suggest a potential short-term recovery attempt. The Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) has turned upward from the oversold territory, signaling that sellers may be losing immediate control. However, the broader market context remains cautious, as previous rallies since late June have been shallow and short-lived. Sustained trading above the mid-Bollinger level would be needed to confirm a shift toward a more constructive short-term outlook.

Overall, the market remains in a consolidation-to-downtrend phase, with traders likely watching for either a breakdown below 62.08 to trigger further downside toward 55.63, or a breakout above 65.40 to open the way toward 71.16. Until a decisive move occurs, range-bound trading between these levels is likely. Risk management remains crucial given the volatility spikes visible in prior sessions, which can lead to sharp intraday reversals.

Market Observation & Strategy Advice:

1. Current Position: USOUSD is trading around 64.17, rebounding from the 62.08 support but still below the mid-Bollinger band, indicating a weak recovery within a broader downtrend.

2. Resistance: Immediate resistance lies at 65.40 (mid-Bollinger), with a stronger resistance level at 71.16, which has capped multiple rallies in recent months.

3. Support: Key support is seen at 62.08, followed by a major downside target at 55.63 if bearish momentum accelerates.

4. Indicators: The Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) is turning upward from oversold territory, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. Price remains below the middle Bollinger Band, indicating the dominant trend is still bearish.

5. Trading Strategy Suggestions:

• Bullish Outlook: Short-term traders may look for buy opportunities if price breaks and sustains above 65.40, targeting 68.90–71.16.

• Bearish Scenario: Bearish positions could be considered on a rejection below 65.40 or a breakdown under 62.08, with downside targets toward 55.63.

• Risk Management: Apply tight risk management due to the history of sharp price swings and false breakouts.

Market Performance:

Commodities Last Price % Change

UKOUSD 67.27 +0.12%

Today's Key Economic Calendar:

JP: GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel

CN: Industrial Production YoY

CN: Retail Sales YoY

US: Retail Sales MoM

US: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel

Risk Disclaimer This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investments involve risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult your financial advisor for personalized investment strategies.