Markets on Edge Ahead of NFP as Tariff Uncertainty Weighs

Key Takeaways:

• The U.S. extended its tariff pause to August 1, but Canada's 35% export tariff rattled markets, while Wall Street and crypto closed lower.

• Investors await the Nonfarm Payrolls report, with strong expectations that could cement the Feds hawkish stance.

• The dollar index rose above 100.00, and a robust NFP print could extend its rally, pressuring equities further.

Market Summary:

Market sentiment turned cautious as the White House extended the 90-day suspension of the “U.S. Liberation Day” tariff policy to August 1, delaying what many anticipate to be a new wave of trade restrictions expired last night. While several countries—including the EU, UK, and Japan—have secured bilateral trade agreements with Washington, others like Canada are now in the crosshairs. Canadian exports were hit with a steeper 35% tariff, up from 25%, unsettling markets.

Risk assets came under pressure, with both Wall Street and major cryptocurrencies closing lower in the previous session as investors digested the implications of the looming tariff rollout. The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy has injected fresh volatility across global markets.

Adding to the cautious tone is the upcoming U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, due later today. Expectations point to a stronger-than-expected jobs figure, which could reinforce the Federal Reserves resolve to maintain its hawkish stance. A robust reading may fuel further gains in the U.S. dollar while placing additional pressure on equities.

The dollar index remained resilient, pushing above the key 100.00 level. A better-than-forecast NFP could accelerate the greenbacks rally and trigger a new round of risk-off sentiment in equity markets.

Technical Analysis

DXY, H4:

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) extended its rally, decisively breaking above the key psychological threshold of 100.00, signaling sustained bullish momentum. The index has climbed more than 3% over the past week, with only minor technical pullbacks observed—underscoring the strength of the broader uptrend.

Momentum indicators further validate the bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered overbought territory, while the MACD continues to edge higher, indicating persistent upward momentum. If current conditions hold, the DXY may be poised for further gains in the near term.

Resistance Levels:100.30, 101.55

Support Levels: 99.20, 98.15

Dow Jones, H4

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has come under renewed pressure this week, sliding more than 2% from its recent peak of 45,135.60 as investor sentiment shifted to the downside. The index breached several key support levels, most recently falling below the 44,225.00 threshold—confirming a bearish technical bias.

The Dow is now approaching the next critical support level at 43,857.00, where a short-term technical rebound could materialize. However, momentum indicators suggest further downside risks. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near oversold territory, while the MACD remains below the zero line and continues to drift lower—indicating that bearish momentum remains firmly in place.

Resistance Levels:44,220.00, 44,520.00

Support Levels: 43,870.00, 43,550.00