USDJPY Analysis: Bears Take Control Below Key Moving Averages

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the USDJPY for July 24, 2025.

Technical Analysis of USDJPYUSDJPY Daily Chart Insights

• Corrective outlook: The robust upward movement that began in late June has lost steam after being unable to sustain levels above the long-term moving average (shown in green). The price is now experiencing a corrective decline. The Stochastic indicators retreat from overbought levels above 80 validates the weakening bullish momentum, indicating potential for additional selling pressure or sideways movement in the near term.

• Key support area: The immediate support level is located at the medium-term moving average (shown in black) around 146.25, which the price is currently testing, and a successful hold above this level would be favorable for bullish sentiment. Additionally, there is a horizontal support zone near 144.00 that corresponds to the lows established in mid-to-late June prior to the breakout move.

USDJPY 2-hour Chart Analysis

• Momentum: The Stochastic oscillator remains positioned in the lower portion of its range while showing signs of emerging from oversold conditions below 20. Such development may indicate the possibility of a brief rebound or sideways trading in the immediate term, however, bearish pressure continues to prevail as long as the price remains beneath critical resistance zones.

• Breakout scenarios: A decisive break and close below the key support level of 146.00 would confirm the bearish trends continuation, likely prompting further selling toward initial targets of 144.80 and possibly 143.60. An advance and sustained hold above the long-term moving average at 146.80 would represent the initial indication of renewed strength. Nevertheless, a more compelling bullish confirmation would emerge from a definitive breach above 147.60, as such a move would clear multiple moving averages and horizontal resistance barriers, signaling that the downtrend is weakening its grip.

USDJPY Pivot Indicator

• The chart reveals a well-defined and entrenched downtrend. The price remains positioned significantly beneath all three moving averages, each of which exhibits a declining slope. The formation of successive lower peaks and troughs validates robust bearish momentum in the immediate term.

• Bearish Continuation: The price has recently breached below a narrow consolidation pattern. A continued hold beneath 146.30 maintains immediate downward pressure. An additional decline below the current low at 146.00 would indicate downtrend continuation, with sellers likely aiming for subsequent psychological or historical support zones such as 145.80 and 145.50.

• Corrective Bounce: Given oversold Stochastic conditions, a brief bounce remains possible. For momentum to develop, the price would need to regain 146.60 resistance. A more substantial reversal signal would be a breakout above the medium-term moving average and swing high at 146.85. However, until these levels are convincingly surpassed, rallies will likely be viewed as selling opportunities by trend-followers.

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