10-year Treasury yield falls as investors weigh the state of the U.S. economy

U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Monday as investors weighed the state of the U.S. economy and considered the latest trade developments.

The 10-year Treasury yield was more than 7 basis points lower at 4.358%. The 2-year yield was more than 2 basis points lower at 3.848%. The 30-year yield was 8 basis points lower at 4.919%.

One basis point is equal to 0.01% and yields and prices move in opposite directions.

On Monday, The Conference Board reported that its Leading Economic Index dropped 0.3% in June to 98.8. That was more than the Dow Jones forecast for a 0.2% fall.

“At this point, The Conference Board does not forecast a recession, although economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025 compared to 2024,” Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, The Conference Board's senior manager for business cycle indicators, said in a statement. “Real GDP is projected to grow by 1.6% this year, with the impact of tariffs becoming more apparent in H2 as consumer spending slows due to higher prices.”

Investors will now keep an eye on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech on Tuesday morning, existing home sales data for June on Wednesday, weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday, and durable goods orders on Friday.

The Fed is currently in a blackout period — a policy that limits Fed officials from speaking publicly ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week where monetary policy decisions will be made, including interest rate cuts. The blackout period began on Saturday.

Investors are also monitoring the latest trade news. Over the weekend, the White House reiterated that countries must begin paying tariffs from Aug. 1. On Sunday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said it's a “hard deadline,” but said countries can still negotiate the tariffs after that date.

“Nothing stops countries from talking to us after August 1, but they're going to start paying the tariffs on August 1,” Lutnick said.