CNBC Daily Open: The U.S. economy does not look down and out

• S&P and Nasdaq storm to new records.
• Trump AG seeks release of Epstein's jury transcripts.
• Japan inflation eases in June.
• The difference between arbitrage vs. market manipulation
• The U.S. consumer pushes back on recession fears.

Despite the noise around tariffs and inflation fears, the U.S. economy seems to be holding its ground — for now. June retail sales came in stronger than expected, and weekly jobless claims dropped below forecasts.

Add to that a solid start to earnings season, and you've got a recipe for record highs: both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched fresh peaks.

So, is the economy truly resilient in the face of the Trump administration's shifting trade winds? Or are we simply in the eye of the storm, with August 1 — the Trump tariff deadline — looming on the horizon?

Remember, economic data is always a step behind. The real impact of tariffs may not show up for months, especially if businesses and consumers are stockpiling ahead of time and foreign exporters are cutting their prices.

Even when the new tariffs hit, the effects might be muted at first as inventories clear.

Still, for now, investors can take comfort in the fact that markets are being lifted by fundamentals — not just fear or speculation.

And yes, to borrow a line from Starship: the U.S. economy is still built on rock-solid data… not on rock and roll.

What you need to know today

Arbitrage versus market manipulation.The line between arbitrage and market manipulation has long been one of the grayest areas in financial markets — and India's recent action against high-frequency trading giant Jane Street has brought that murky boundary into sharp focus. Experts tell us the difference between the two.

S&P and Nasdaq storm to new records. U.S. stocks climbed Thursday due to solid earnings and economic data, with the S&P 500 up 0.54% for a record close of 6,297.36 — its ninth this year. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.75% for its tenth record close of 2025, ending at 20,885.65. In Asia, Australian equities notched a record high as other markets traded mixed.

Trump AG seeks release of Epstein's jury transcripts. President Donald Trumpsaid Thursday night that he had asked Attorney General Pam Bondi to seek the unsealing of grand jury testimony related to the criminal prosecution of the notorious pedophile.

Japan inflation eases. Core inflation cooled to 3.3% in June, coming down from a 29-month high of 3.7% as rice inflation showed signs of easing. The increase in rice prices eased slightly, rising 100.2% year over year, compared with the 101.7% jump in May.

[PRO] The U.S. consumer pushes back on recession fears.U.S. consumers appear to prove economic pessimists wrong this summer as they flex their spending muscle, according to June's retail sales report. But some alternative data suggests that the consumer is hanging in there.

And finally...

Travelers to the US must pay a new $250 ‘visa integrity fee’

Visitors to the United States will need to pay a “visa integrity fee,” according to a provision of the Trump administration's recently enacted One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

The fee applies to all visitors who need non-immigrant visas to enter, and cannot be waived.

However, travelers may also be able to get the fees reimbursed, according to the provision.