U.S. Stocks Steady Ahead of CPI; Bitcoin Hits New High, Oil Volatile

Market Overview

U.S. equities closed slightly higher on Monday despite renewed tariff threats from Donald Trump. Investors largely stayed on the sidelines, awaiting Tuesdays highly anticipated CPI report and key bank earnings. In the bond market, long-term Treasuries retreated ahead of the inflation data, with the 10-year yield rising 2.4 basis points to nearly a one-month high.

In crypto markets, Bitcoin surged more than 3% intraday and closed up nearly 1%, setting a new all-time high at $123,000. Commodities were mixed—gold pulled back nearly 1% from its daily high, while silver reversed sharply after touching a nearly 14-year peak, ultimately closing down about 1%. Oil prices experienced sharp swings, ending the day down 3% as Trumps sanctions against Russia notably excluded restrictions on energy exports.

What to Watch

● TACO Trade in the Spotlight Again

Trump warned that unless Russia and Ukraine reach a peace agreement within 50 days, he would impose a 100% tariff on Russian imports and secondary sanctions on countries purchasing Russian oil. He also announced a NATO agreement to deliver weapons to Ukraine.

Markets, however, viewed these comments as lacking immediate execution risk. As fears over short-term supply disruptions eased, oil prices fell accordingly. Meanwhile, Brazil urgently requested to reduce the proposed new U.S. tariff rate from 50% to 30% and sought a 90-day implementation delay. Brazilian lawmakers plan to visit Washington in September to discuss the matter with U.S. officials.

● Silver Hits Near 14-Year High

Spot silver jumped as much as 1.9% on Monday, briefly breaching $39 per ounce for the first time in nearly 14 years. The rally was fueled by tightening supply in the physical market, surging borrowing costs, and heightened demand for safe havens amid U.S. trade policy uncertainty.

The implied annualized cost for one-month silver loans has soared above 6%, far exceeding the typical near-zero range, indicating elevated stress in the physical silver lending market.

Key Events to Watch (GMT+8)

• 20:30 – U.S. CPI YoY & MoM (June, Unadjusted)

• 21:15 – Fed Governor Bowman delivers welcome remarks at a Fed-hosted conference

• 00:45 (Overnight) – Fed Vice Chair Barr speaks at the same event