Short-Term Bearish Setup Emerges in Gold – Tactical Trading Breakdown

Following up on our morning and midday updates yesterday, weve shifted our gold outlook from bearish to neutral. This change suggests a short-term analytical approach is now more appropriate, as medium-term trend clarity remains elusive. Over the next 1–3 years, however, productivity cycle theory continues to suggest that equities will significantly outperform gold, based on historical patterns.

U.S. equity markets opened lower but closed higher on Tuesday, supported by investor optimism over Q2 earnings guidance. Indexes were mostly flat by session end, while gold showed a “pop-and-drop” pattern — rising early before breaking below the key psychological level of $3350, which also aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement neutral zone. With no clear signals from macro data or headlines, short-term gold trading becomes more technical in nature and highly sensitive to shifting market sentiment.

During today‘s Asia session, gold prices weakened further, pressured by news flow. Meanwhile, U.S. equity futures continued to push higher, following through on bullish momentum. The key catalyst: NVIDIA’s plan to launch the China-specific B30 chip. According to TechWeb, NVIDIA secured $1 billion in B30 orders in late June, with deliveries expected to begin in August.

The acceptance of such orders implies that the B30 chip is no longer restricted by U.S. policy, hinting at a slight thaw in U.S.–China trade tensions.

While former President Trump continues to spark tariff-related headlines globally, markets are increasingly focused on the possibility of positive trade de-escalation. In that context, all eyes are now on NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huangs scheduled appearance at the 3rd China International AI Expo in Beijing tomorrow.

If concerns around Chinese military AI chips subside, it may open the door to more constructive engagement between Washington and Beijing.

Gold Technical Analysis

On the 1-hour chart, gold recently broke out from a double-bottom “W” formation, briefly retesting the neckline. The initial neckline support at $3354 failed to hold, and prices slid toward the secondary support zone near $3336. Bulls are attempting to defend this level and resume the upward trend.

From a Fibonacci perspective, resistance lies at $3350, with support at $3325. When combining pattern analysis and Fibonacci levels, short-term bearish opportunities remain.

Tactical Strategy:

If gold fails to break above $3350, expect a continuation lower toward $3325. A clean break below that level could transition the structure into a sideways or choppy regime.

Suggested Stop-Loss:

Above $3374, based on portfolio-level risk management.

Key Levels:

Support: $3325

Resistance: $3350 / $3374

Risk Disclaimer: The views, analysis, prices, or research presented above are intended solely for general market commentary and do not represent the position of this platform. Readers should manage risk independently and trade responsibly.