Your Daily Dose of Market Direction

Market Analysis

GOLD

GOLD is currently testing the higher boundary of its range, extending the move up from the EMA200. We are seeing growth in buying volume from the MACD, and the RSI is nearing overbought levels. The best we can do now is wait to see how prices progress from this current level. It is important to note that the overall price action is still respecting the broader bearish momentum and structure.

SILVER

Prices are currently testing the previous high point. If the price succeeds in breaking through this high, we might see a continuation. However, if it fails, we will see a continuation of the consolidation. The MACD is showing stable growth in bullish volume, and the RSI also indicates increased bullish momentum. The overall price action is also maintaining its bullish momentum, albeit within a consolidated range. Thus, we will continue to expect more buying opportunities, especially when prices break through the high.

DXY

The Dollar is gaining strength from the EMA200, aligning with our expectations. We anticipate continued buying in the coming days, with the price testing the 97.932 level. The MACD indicates growth, but the RSI is approaching overbought territory.

The fundamental landscape for the Dollar is complex. President Trump has announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1 and proposed 15–20% tariffs on other partners, impacting metals like GOLD and SILVER as alternatives to the Dollar. While these tariffs may initially strengthen the Dollar, concerns about economic stability and Trump's call for a 300-basis-point cut in the Fed funds rate could pose risks ahead.

On the data front, Initial Jobless Claims fell to 227K, below expectations, indicating a resilient labor market, which complicates the outlook for Fed rate cuts.

GBPUSD

The Pound is following through on expectations and continuing lower. Prices are still pricing in further selling. The MACD and the RSI are indicating increased bearish momentum and volume, with more chances for a sell continuation. Thus, we continue to look for more bearish opportunities.

AUDUSD

The Aussie Dollar is rising against the U.S. Dollar, indicating a market appetite for riskier assets, aided by the RBA's decision to hold rates. However, expectations for a rate cut in August are increasing, with an 89% probability priced in, contingent on Q2 inflation data due July 30. A core inflation rise of 0.6%–0.7% could pave the way for a cut, while a stronger reading might delay it. The MACD and RSI show bullish volume and momentum, suggesting potential buying opportunities if prices break through 0.65869. However, failure to do so would maintain bearish momentum, so a complete bullish shift isn't anticipated yet.

NZDUSD

The Kiwi is not reacting as aggressively as the Aussie Dollar. It is maintaining prices under the EMA200. Although there was some growth coming into prices from the 0.59796 level, we expect further selling to continue but will remain cautious of sudden turns. The MACD is showing bullish growth but it is slightly muted, suggesting a potential for a sudden downturn. The RSI is also indicating oversold levels, following through on the rise in bullish momentum.

EURUSD

The Euro is currently seeing increased selling movement. However, as we always say, it is still stuck within the consolidation zone. We will wait to see a clear break in price before calling for a definite market movement. The chances for it to break lower are high, given how the MACD and the RSI are reflecting bearish growth in momentum and volume.

USDJPY

The Yen is currently finding increased weakness after its initial wins against the Dollar [USD/JPY is rising]. This rise is within our expectations as it follows through with the overall price action sentiment. The MACD is showing bullish growth, but the RSI is indicating overbought levels. We anticipate further buying to continue and will wait for the downturn that could come from the RSI. It might even be one to three candles before a complete resumption of the rise.

USDCHF

The Franc is maintaining its strength and is consolidating further. While it showed weakness after reaching the bottom boundary, it is currently testing the high boundary of the range [on USD/CHF]. Thus, we will refrain from calling anything until a clear break of structure occurs.

USDCAD

The CAD is currently seeing further weakness against the Dollar [USD/CAD is rising] as tariff plans start rolling in. While the deadline is delayed further to August 1st, the new 35% tariff threat specifically targeting Canada creates increased chances for a buying continuation in USD/CAD. The MACD is muted, showing bearish volume despite the rise in prices, which indicates consolidation and insecurity about where to move prices. Thus, all we can do is wait for a definitive move to break above 1.37261. However, it is important to note that prices right now are seeing increased bullish momentum and volume.