Trump Targets Brazil with Tariff Hike — Rates Raised to 50%

According to the latest statistics (2023–2024), Brazils top export to the U.S. is mineral products, primarily crude oil, followed by metal goods, agricultural products, and machinery. This tariff hike is expected to directly push up the Consumer Price Index (CPI), reinforcing inflation expectations and helping gold prices reclaim the $3,300/oz level.

However, risk assets appear unfazed. Equity markets continued their upward momentum, suggesting that inflation concerns may have faded and investor focus has shifted back to AI-driven productivity themes. On July 9, NVIDIA briefly surpassed a $4 trillion market cap, and all members of the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants closed in positive territory—except Tesla, which dipped slightly amid ongoing political scrutiny of Elon Musk.

(Chart 1. S&P 500 Heatmap; Source: FINVIZ)

Is the market no longer worried about the Trump tariff effect？ We believe there's another angle worth considering. Tariffs, while contentious, are a real source of revenue for the U.S. Treasury. On July 8, Treasury Secretary Bessent noted that year-to-date tariff revenue has already hit $100 billion. With Trumps latest trade actions accelerating collections, revenue is projected to reach $300 billion by year-end.

Trump's universal tariff policy only began rolling out in Q2. Bessent estimates it could generate up to $2.8 trillion over the next decade—or even more—potentially offsetting fiscal pressures from large-scale spending packages like the “Big and Beautiful” Act.

From a consumer perspective, Amazon's Prime Day has officially kicked off. Amanda Schoenbauer, an analyst at Numerator, observed that shoppers are leaning toward low-ticket items. While average order value may be slightly lower, sustained demand over the four-day event could still result in record-breaking sales.

Adobe reported that online sales in the U.S. reached $7.9 billion on Tuesday, marking a 9.9% year-over-year increase. Total sales over the four-day campaign are expected to hit $23.8 billion. Momentums Shea highlighted that “the halo effect from Prime Day on other retailers is more pronounced this year than ever before.”

Amazons stock performance reflects this optimism. Looking ahead, we expect one final wave of inventory restocking by manufacturers after July, which could further lift momentum in industrial sectors.

Gold Technical Analysis

Following up on our previous analysis, gold remains in a volatile downtrend, consolidating within a descending channel. On the daily chart, today marks the second day of a rebound. Investors should monitor resistance near $3,327—this corresponds with the upper boundary of the channel. If price action fails to break through and forms a bearish reversal candle, short positions may be considered. Suggested stop-loss: $20.

• Support: $3,282

• Resistance: $3,327

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