Economy in Motion: Trends & Turning Points

Market Overview

Primary Market Drivers: Geopolitics and Trade

The markets are currently influenced by two key narratives: ongoing geopolitics and trade tensions. Today, being the U.S. Independence Day holiday, stock and bond markets are closed, resulting in reduced liquidity in foreign exchange markets.

Middle East Update

Despite a push for a 60-day ceasefire, the situation in the Middle East remains critical. Israeli airstrikes have escalated, leading to significant casualties and devastation in Gaza, where over 57,000 Palestinians are reported dead and many displaced. The potential for a permanent ceasefire is uncertain, as both Israel and Hamas remain firm in their demands. Israel's extensive aerial campaign has involved nearly 35,000 attacks in the last 20 months, including deep strikes into Iran. Iranian-aligned militias continue to pose threats along the Syria-Iraq border, complicating efforts for a stable resolution.

Global Tariff Landscape

On the trade front, the U.S. retains a 10% baseline tariff on most imports since April 2025, with a critical deadline approaching on July 9, 2025, for reciprocal tariffs that could rise significantly unless new agreements are reached. President Trump may show flexibility, but the expectation is for tariffs to apply to around 100 countries. Certain countries have negotiated specific tariff adjustments, yet high tariffs remain in effect on key sectors like steel, aluminum, and automobiles. The long-term impact of these tariffs on the global economy is uncertain, raising concerns about a potential domino effect on various economies.

MARKET ANALYSIS

GOLD

Prices remain bearish, struggling to break the upper resistance. This could lead to further sell-offs toward the lower boundary. The EMA200 is reinforcing resistance, while MACD and RSI show rising selling momentum. With better-than-expected U.S. jobs data supporting the Dollar, we expect a continuation of selling. However, we remain cautious, as volatile fundamentals may still shift the outlook for GOLD to bullish.

SILVER

Prices rose despite the fallout in GOLD prices. SILVER has broken through its high, and if prices maintain this higher level, we might see a continued rise. Right now, the technical indicators are mixed; the MACD indicates increased selling volume, but the RSI is entering oversold territory, suggesting the downward move may be overextended and due for a pause or bounce.

DXY

The Dollar was carried through with yesterdays exemplary data, where the Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a gain of +195K jobs (far above the 131K forecast), while the Unemployment Rate fell to 4.1%. The MACD is seeing increased buying volume while the RSI is also signaling the same. However, if prices fail to carry through beyond the EMA200, we will call for a bullish continuation within the range.

GBPUSD

The Pound is currently seeing a consolidation near the point where it shifted bearish. With this, we continue to look for a bullish market reversal. However, the MACD and the RSI are showing signs of consolidation at the moment. We will wait for a clear break before calling anything.

AUDUSD

The Aussie Dollar is still consolidated, with prices bouncing aggressively off the EMA200. We will retain our current reading and wait for a clear break of the range.

NZDUSD

The Kiwi is holding at the EMA200 and is consolidated. This consolidation is also largely reflected in the MACD and the RSI. We will wait for a clear break before calling for a price continuation.

EURUSD

The Euro is finding increased chances for consolidation as prices maneuver between established price boundaries. We will hold off on calling a direction until a clear break in structure is found.

USDJPY

As weve seen yesterday, the chances for a rise in the Yen did exist. With the current rise [in USD/JPY], if prices stay at this level for longer, we will call for a complete bullish shift. However, as long as the 145.196 level holds, we will still retain our bearish outlook [for USD/JPY strength]. It is important to take note of the EMA200, as it may stand as an effective support for prices. The MACD and the RSI are showing growth for the bullish momentum and volume.

USDCHF

The Franc tested the EMA200 [on USD/CHF]. This rise was expected but is not enough to call for a complete shift. The EMA200 rejected the price, and the MACD is finding a chance to shift back to selling. The RSI is something to watch as it is currently still consolidated. We will wait to see how prices will progress, but we do expect further selling to continue.

USDCAD

The CAD is slow but is certainly holding through a continued sell-off [for USD/CAD], holding back the gains of the Dollar. The MACD is bottoming out but is also finding a rise in selling volume. The RSI is also seeing potential for the pair to continue bearishly as it nears overbought levels. We will look for more selling opportunities while maintaining a level of conservatism for any sudden turnouts.