Risk Assets Soar to New Highs – Institutions Left Behind

We‘ve long anticipated a FOMO-driven rally, and now it's here. But we believe the next phase of the risk asset bull market will be even more aggressive. Why？ Because since the “Liberation Day” sell-off in April, it wasn’t retail investors who exited positions—it was institutional players. As large capital returns, it could drive risk assets to unimaginable highs.

At our core, we believe in elegant execution: buying when others don‘t understand, dismiss, or ignore the market—and staying cautious when the masses go all in. Simply put: It’s hard to win when you‘re chasing the peak. It’s hard to lose when you buy the bottom.

The equity market hasnt topped yet. Investors should focus on macroeconomic signals—not be distracted by headlines and news flow.

Looking back at the April downturn, U.S. assets came under intense selling pressure due to tariff concerns and fiscal deficits. We witnessed a rare “triple sell-off” in stocks, bonds, and the dollar. Fund Manager Surveys from BofA clearly indicated institutional players had not rotated back into dollar assets.

In other words, when we see the U.S. Dollar Index reverse and climb again, it will likely mark the return of institutional money into U.S. equities and Treasuries. Once that happens, the final leg of the risk asset rally begins. While mainstream media fixates on a “weaker dollar” narrative, we disagree. Taking a second-level thinking approach, we believe a rebound in the dollar could signal that short-term tailwinds have already peaked.

(Chart 1: Dollar Index breaks new lows – Source: CNBC)

On June 17, the U.S. passed the GENIUS Act—a potential game-changer for capital markets. This legislation signals a structural shift: cryptocurrency price fluctuations will now be viewed as a forward-looking indicator of market sentiment and liquidity flow. Moreover, changes in cryptos total market cap could influence supply-demand dynamics in U.S. Treasuries, thereby impacting broader risk assets.

But one key question remains:

Are cryptocurrencies risk assets—or safe-haven assets？

We believe the answer is: both.

Take stablecoins as an example. These digital assets are typically backed by U.S. Treasuries, creating a soft peg to the U.S. dollar. While most are currently collateralized with short-term government bonds, they reinforce the dollars safe-haven appeal. When risk rises, capital flows into safe assets—including stablecoins—further boosting demand for crypto.

Conversely, in periods of strong economic performance and rising long-term yields, investor risk appetite returns—and high-volatility assets like crypto can benefit significantly.

In this new financial framework, crypto has evolved from a speculative instrument into a hybrid asset intertwined with the dollar, Treasuries, risk appetite, and hedging demand. Its influence will only grow stronger.

As we look ahead, in the event of a recession or inflationary spike, gold may no longer be the star.

Gold Technical Outlook

Gold prices are consolidating between $3,300 and $3,350, and the weekly chart suggests a structural shift toward a bearish trend. From a short-term perspective, traders should pay close attention to key technical levels. Avoid chasing short positions at current levels. Instead, wait patiently for a possible rebound toward the $3,356 resistance zone.

If gold tests and fails to break through $3,356, this may provide an ideal opportunity to open short positions. Suggested stop-loss: $20

• Support: $3,295

• Resistance: $3,356

Risk Disclaimer: The above analysis is provided solely for general market commentary purposes and does not reflect the official stance of our platform. All viewers should independently assess risks before making any trading decisions. Trade cautiously.