DBG Markets: Market Report for Jun 24, 2025

Market Analysis

GOLD

GOLD prices, which were set to rise further, saw a dramatic reversal earlier this morning after President Trump announced a surprise ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. In a statement on social media, Trump said there will be a "complete and total" ceasefire in about six hours, bringing an end to what he dubbed "THE 12 DAY WAR." This news triggered a massive "risk-on" shift in global markets. The announcement prompted a sharp sell-off in safe-haven assets as traders took profits.

Early Asian trading followed through on this selling continuation.The RSI is calling for oversold conditions but might rise as quickly as it fell for a normalization of the selling. The best we can do is wait to see how the markets progress and break out of this new consolidation.

DXY

Trades in the Dollar have been held back as risk-on assets took the spotlight. Traders are taking profits away from safe-haven assets to adopt a more aggressive stance in the market. Prices were quick to fall from their recent highs as they found a reason to continue their broader bearish trend after the announcement of a possible peace in the Middle East. This bearish sentiment persists even as U.S. PMI data from yesterday showed continued growth in the manufacturing and services sectors; the data was simply not strong enough to counteract the massive geopolitical shift. The MACD is showing strong bearish volume, and the RSI is bottoming out, calling for oversold levels. There is a chance for markets to rise for a bit to normalize the selling. The sell-off came in as we expected, as the overall price action retained our bearish expectations.

GBPUSD

The Pound is finding increased buying as risk-on assets gained strength over the Dollar. We can see a continued buying momentum despite the recent price shifts. While we expected prices to continue lower last week, the pair has retracted back to buying. This continues the consolidation zone.

AUDUSD

The Aussie Dollar is finding strength, as we expected, after the sudden news of a resolution in the Middle East. The prices reached for the EMA200, and the MACD is finding increased bullish movement. The RSI is calling for overbought levels, which shows the possibility for a short turnaround for the normalization of the market buying. We expect further buying to continue within the consolidation range, or even break above it. However, depending on how the market reacts from here, there is still a possibility for a return to selling.

NZDUSD

The Kiwi is finding increased buying from the bottom of its price range, reaching for the EMA200. This is not enough to shift the overall momentum of the price, but the buying is finding increased volume with the MACD. Although, the RSI is calling for overbought levels. This movement is very similar to the Australian Dollar's, as traders take a more aggressive stance before waiting to see how the ceasefire will develop.

EURUSD

The Euro is still stuck in a consolidation but is currently showing chances for an increased bullish continuation, supported by yesterday's mostly positive Flash PMI data. While France's readings were soft, strong improvement in Germany's Manufacturing (to 49.0) and Services (to 49.4) PMIs provided a boost to the bloc's overall outlook. The MACD is also finding increased bullish volume, while the RSI has yet to call for overbought levels. We will wait to see how prices progress in the coming days.

USDJPY

The Yen was just shy of the 148.104 level [on USD/JPY] before it was taken lower. The Yen's strength came after the weakness in the Dollar kicked in, allowing it to push prices against the Dollar lower. The MACD is finding increased bearish strength while the RSI is bottoming out, signaling a potential for prices to bounce for a bit to normalize the overall bearish momentum.

USDCHF

The Franc is gaining back some strength after the Dollar weakened. We can see that the Franc has had a more muted response compared to other currencies due to its safe-haven nature; right now, traders are more focused on risk-on assets. We will wait to see how prices will progress and break structure before taking any action, but our overall bearish sentiment [for USD/CHF] remains as it has always respected the bearish structures.

USDCAD

The CAD is also reacting weakly to the risk-on event, as the market awaits the release of Canadian CPI (Inflation) data later today. The price did not react aggressively to the sell-off [in the USD] and has maintained an acceptable drop range [for USD/CAD]. The MACD is finding potential for increased selling, but it is still on the weaker side. The RSI is also bottoming out quickly, showing oversold levels and that some buying momentum remains. This is not surprising, as the overall price action is still looking for more chances to buy the market [USD/CAD]. We anticipate further buying to continue in the coming days but will wait to see how this develops. We choose to remain steady and careful.