DBG Markets: Market Report for Jun 18, 2025

Market Overview

GOLD

GOLD prices are underpinned by the larger conflict in the Middle East, though its reaction has been more subdued than other assets. The current underperformance of Gold, despite the classic risk-off environment, is likely caused by traders looking more toward the immediate volatility in Oil prices. Others may be considering SILVER or waiting for Gold to be brought lower before initiating new long positions, especially as it remains near historic highs. There is a sense that the price may be experiencing some manipulation or at least a temporary disconnect from its typical safe-haven role, but it is unclear how long this can last. The MACD is seeing increased chances for a bullish continuation, but the RSI is still consolidated.

SILVER

SILVER prices have risen to significant levels overnight, climbing to a new 13-year high around $37.20. This came as a surprise as Gold prices remained relatively subdued despite the surge in demand for safe-haven assets. This shows a clear divergence where capital is flowing more aggressively into Silver. The RSI and the MACD are also very bullish at the moment. This strength comes despite the sudden burst of strength in the Dollar, and we expect to see further buying in the coming days as this demand follows through.

DXY

The Dollar has experienced a sharp curve upward overnight, showing a chance for a bullish continuation due to its safe-haven status amid the uncertainties in the Middle East. The EMA200 has been broken through to the upside, and the MACD and the RSI reflect growth for bullish momentum and volume. However, the overall price momentum for the Dollar still remains within broader bearish structures. The market will now turn its attention to the FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate decision, and Press Conference scheduled for later this Thursday, which will be a major catalyst. Although, a more major part of the moves will depend on how the situation in the Middle East will progress.

GBPUSD

The Pound is currently finding increased selling pressure. This sudden burst of weakness from the Pound was unprecedented as just recently, it was finding strength in the trades. The weakness came ahead of the UK CPI inflation data, which is also scheduled for release later today. The MACD and the RSI are also finding further selling potential. Although this price movement is yet to shift the overall market momentum, it is now testing the 1.34294 support level.

AUDUSD

The Aussie Dollar is consolidating further. We wait for a clear break, but we widely expect further selling as the market is in a clear risk-off mode right now, which typically weighs on risk-sensitive currencies like the Aussie.

NZDUSD

The Kiwi is similar to the Aussie dollar; we are waiting for things to settle and for a clear break of structure to come into the markets.

EURUSD

The Euro is currently finding increased selling opportunities. The MACD is showing a drop while the RSI, previously overbought, is following through on the chances of a sell continuation. However, the overall price movement is still structurally bullish. And so, we will wait for a clear break before taking action. Otherwise, the Euro has made another consolidation zone under the 1.16110 level.

USDJPY

We can see that the Yen is on the structure it needs to break for a buy continuation [for USD/JPY]. However, currently, we are still seeing evidence of it being stuck in a consolidation. It does come as a bit of a surprise for the Yen to be this weak despite the geopolitical concerns. It is highly likely for prices to consolidate as it gains strength that rivals the Dollar during these times. However, its increased weakness may also be due to concerns about a plausible overall slowdown in its economy, which could complicate its most recent moves on interest rates. Just yesterday (June 17), the Bank of Japan held its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% and adopted a cautious tone, citing global uncertainties. We will stay away until a clear break occurs.

USDCHF

The Franc is currently testing the EMA200 [on USD/CHF]. The MACD is finding increased buying volume despite the muted volume increases. Prices are rising in correlation to it. Although, the RSI is still largely consolidated. The overall price action is still very bearish, and the EMA200 is still acting as resistance for prices. Thus, all we can do is wait to see how this will progress in the coming days.

USDCAD

The CAD is finding increased bullish volume [for USD/CAD], and the RSI is also seeing increased bullish momentum. This rise in market momentum and volume is expected to continue as the overall price action has been broken and has shifted. Thus, we can look for more buying opportunities. However, it is a question of how long this momentum will last. There is speculation from others that this might not last for long. For now, we follow through with our readings from the chart and look for an overall buying momentum.