Trump's Warning to Iran Reignites Market Volatility

Market Overview

Geopolitical tensions flared as former President Trump issued a stern warning to Iran, triggering a broad pullback across the three major U.S. stock indices. The Senate‘s push to phase out solar tax credits weighed heavily on solar stocks. Following the release of May’s retail sales data, U.S. Treasury yields dropped to session lows while the U.S. Dollar Index extended its gains, recovering losses from the recent Israeli airstrike-related downturn. Crude oil spiked over 5% intraday, driven by heightened geopolitical risk and safe-haven demand, closing at its highest level in nearly five months. Silver futures surged more than 2%, setting a new all-time high. Gold, however, reversed gains and turned lower during the session, pulling further away from recent highs.

Hot Topics Preview

● Retail Sales Post Largest Decline in Two Years

U.S. retail sales fell 0.9% MoM in May, marking the steepest drop since March 2023, largely due to a sharp pullback in auto purchases. The previous demand surge, driven by preemptive buying amid tariff concerns, appears to have subsided. Still, robust wage growth continues to provide some support for consumer spending.

● IEA Outlook: Oil Supply to Remain Ample

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), unless theres a significant disruption in Middle East oil supply, the global oil market will remain well-supplied through 2025. The agency projects global output will rise by 1.8 million barrels per day to 104.9 million bpd next year. It also noted that oversupply conditions may persist for the rest of the decade.

Key Economic Events to Watch

🕗 20:30 GMT+8 – U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 14 (in thousands)

🕗 20:30 GMT+8 – U.S. May Housing Starts (annualized, in thousands)

🕗 20:30 GMT+8 – U.S. May Building Permits (annualized, in thousands)

🕙 22:30 GMT+8 – EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (week ending June 13, in million barrels)

🕛 02:00 GMT+8 (overnight) – FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Summary of Economic Projections

🕝 02:30 GMT+8 – Fed Chair Powells Press Conference on Monetary Policy