Markets Rattled as Trump Revives Trade War Fears with Fresh Tariff Threat

Key Takeaways:

• The global market was rattled by President Trump‘s new unilateral tariff threat.

• U.S. CPI reading came short of the market consensus, dampening the U.S. dollar’s strength.

Market Summary:

Global financial markets were once again jolted after President Trump unexpectedly reignited trade tensions by announcing plans to impose new unilateral tariffs within two weeks. The announcement came just as markets had begun to stabilize following a constructive second round of U.S.-China trade talks that concluded on a positive note.

The surprise tariff threat sparked an immediate flight to safety, driving renewed demand for gold. The precious metal surged as investors sought refuge from the escalating global trade uncertainty. The U.S. dollar, on the other hand, came under pressure, with the Dollar Index tumbling to a fresh low of 98.28 as concerns mounted over the potential economic fallout from the renewed trade war rhetoric.

Adding to the bearish pressure on the greenback, the latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) print disappointed market expectations, coming in at 2.4% year-over-year versus the 2.5% consensus forecast. The weaker inflation data reinforced fears about the underlying strength of the U.S. economy.

However, the dollar found some temporary support from a modest rebound in 10-year Treasury yields, following a lukewarm auction that saw weaker demand and pushed bond prices lower.

With markets now awaiting further clarification on the scope and targets of the proposed tariffs, investor sentiment is expected to remain cautious. The combination of policy uncertainty, soft inflation data, and geopolitical tensions suggests that trading conditions may stay subdued and risk-averse in the near term.

Technical Analysis

DXY, H4:

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains under sustained pressure, trading below the critical resistance level at 99.25, a zone where it has faced multiple rejections in recent sessions. The index extended its decline to a fresh low of 98.28, reinforcing a bearish technical outlook.

The greenback is now hovering just above the key psychological support at the 98.00 mark. A decisive break below this level would mark the lowest point since March 2022 and could trigger further downside, confirming a strong bearish signal for the index.

Momentum indicators align with this view. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped close to the oversold territory, reflecting increased selling pressure, while the MACD continues to hover near the zero line, indicating the potential formation of fresh bearish momentum.

Unless the dollar stages a recovery above the 99.25 resistance, the technical bias remains negative. Traders should monitor the 98.00 level closely, as a breakdown could open the door for a deeper correction amid prevailing macroeconomic uncertainties.

Resistance levels: 99.25, 100.55

Support levels: 98.10, 96.55

XAUUSD, H4

old prices extended their gains, rising nearly 1% in the previous session, with the bullish momentum continuing into the Asian trading hours. The metal is now approaching a key resistance level at $3,382.00 — a breakout above this level would reinforce the bullish outlook and signal further upside potential.

Momentum indicators are turning supportive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed in tandem with price, indicating strengthening buying interest. Meanwhile, the MACD is showing early signs of a rebound above the zero line, suggesting that bullish momentum may be building.

A sustained break above $3,382.00 could open the path toward retesting recent highs. However, traders should monitor momentum closely, as failure to clear resistance may trigger a temporary consolidation.

Resistance levels: 3483.00, 3570.00

Support levels: 3297.00, 3225.00